Defense, not Cutler, must carry Bears to the playoffs

The excitement over quarterback Jay Cutler is understandable, but if the Bears are to make it back to the playoffs after a two-year absence, it will be because of the defense.

And the running game has to be better than last season, when the Bears were 24th in rushing yards and 27th in average gain per rush.

Cutler put up monster numbers last year, but it didn't prevent the Broncos from losing their final three games and four of their last six because the defense collapsed. The Denver defense allowed 143 points in the final four defeats, an average of 36 per game, which ultimately cost head coach Mike Shanahan his job.

Cutler threw for an AFC-best 4,526 yards last season and 25 touchdowns, and Denver was No. 3 in the NFL in passing yards and No. 2 in total yards. But the defense was No. 29 in total yards allowed. It all added up to an 8-8 record and a berth in front of the flat screen for the playoffs.

The 2008 Bears' defense wasn't that much better. It was 21st in total yards allowed and 30th in passing yards allowed, thanks in part to a pass rush that was No. 29 in sack percentage, five spots below the Broncos.

So it won't matter how strong and accurate Cutler's arm is if the defense can't stop the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings when they come to Soldier Field for two of the Bears' three home games in December.

The only December road game is at Baltimore, and if the running game isn't good enough to keep the Ravens' ravenous defense honest, Cutler will spend the afternoon running for his life.

The only way Cutler will throw for 4,526 yards this year is if the season goes in the tank early. Besides, he doesn't have the receivers he did in Denver, which has been well documented.

But, while he may not be as prolific, Cutler can be more effective than he was last year. He threw 18 interceptions in 2008, the second most in the NFL (he also had the second-most attempts with 616) and saw his passer rating dip to 86.0 after two seasons above 88.

Even with a less experienced group of wide receivers than he had in Denver, Cutler can be a more efficient passer if he has the luxury of playing with a lead. He wouldn't have to throw as often, which wouldn't allow defenses to fixate on pressuring him and stopping the passing game.

Cutler can get the Bears the lead, but it's up to the defense to preserve it and to keep the team in the game when the offense starts slowly. Defensive line coach Rod Marinelli has to find a way to extract more pass-rush pressure from essentially the same group of players who combined to get just 28 sacks in '08. Someone has to have more than the 6 sacks than right end Alex Brown got last season to lead the Bears.

That extra pressure would also compensate for a secondary that will be nowhere near completely healthy when the season starts.

Nine of last year's 12 playoff defenses were in the top half in sacks, and six of them finished in the top seven in sacks. Among the seven stingiest defenses in the NFL in total yards allowed, six of them made the playoffs.

Cutler and the offense may sell tickets and jerseys, but for the Bears to be a playoff team they'll need a playoff-caliber defense.