Fantasy football: Picking receivers always a gamble
Receivers are a fickle bunch.
From one year to the next, you can hardly figure what's coming.
You have a better chance of figuring out if your significant other is actually upset when they answer "no" to the age-old question, "Is something wrong?"
And that's why ranking WRs is the biggest gamble in fantasy football.
Last season, I had Braylon Edwards (55-872-3) ranked fourth, Torry Holt (64-796-3) ranked 11th and Marvin Harrison (60-636-5) at No. 14. Every season there will be wide receivers in the top 20, and often the top 10, who disappoint owners greatly. That's why it's best not to put too much faith in most of them.
Let's take a closer look at what should transpire in 2009:
Triple threats
When I ranked Terrell Owens as my No. 1 receiver two years ago, I was baffled that no other Web site or magazine agreed with me. Owens, with Tony Romo in his first full season as Dallas' QB, went on to post a 1,355-yard, 15-TD season to rank No. 2 among fantasy WRs, behind only the absurd 23-TD campaign by Randy Moss.
This season, I'm baffled again. And this time it has to do with Moss.
Nearly every Web site or magazine I check has Larry Fitzgerald as the No. 1 receiver, usually followed by Houston's Andre Johnson. I understand the thinking, especially in the wake of Fitzgerald's ridiculous postseason.
But follow me here: While your league-mates are using a draft spot around Nos. 8-12 to take Fitzgerald or Johnson, it would behoove you to wait just a bit longer - hopefully late in the second round - to grab Moss.
I still believe Moss will put up numbers every bit as good as Fitzgerald (96-1,431-12 last year) and Johnson (115-1,575-8). Let's not forget that Moss had 11 touchdowns and four 100-yard games with Matt Cassell at quarterback. As long as Tom Brady clears the mental hurdle and trusts his reconstructed knee, there's no reason Moss can't end up being the top-rated WR when the dust settles. A 1,500-yard, 15-TD campaign doesn't seem out of the question.
Hot Rodd
One underrated receiver to get your hands on is Atlanta's Roddy White. With QB Matt Ryan entering his second year, TE Tony Gonzalez on board and RB Michael Turner still abusing defenders, White should see plenty of 1-on-1 coverage and room to roam in the secondary.
His closing schedule - with four of five games in Atlanta's dome between Weeks 12-16 - should also be music to fantasy owners' ears. While other top-tier wideouts like Green Bay's Greg Jennings could be buried in an avalanche of snow, White will be on a magic carpet ride in the Georgia Dome. He should be available in the middle to late third round of standard drafts.
Why so low?
I'm already second-guessing myself on Carolina's Steve Smith, who finished third in the NFL with 1,421 receiving yards last season. The last three years, though, he's tied for 18th, 17th and ninth in receiving touchdowns. That, plus a tough finishing schedule against Tampa Bay, New England, Minnesota and the New York Giants gives me reasons for pause.
On the rise:
Here are some players who could finish 5-10 spots or higher than I have them ranked if all goes well:
• Dallas' Roy Williams (No. 18). Someone besides TE Jason Witten needs to step up with Terrell Owens gone. Williams (1,310-7 in 2006) should be in for a big season.
• If your league awards bonus points for long scores, Devin Hester (No. 36) is a nice player to target. I can see him with at least 3 TDs that go for 40-plus yards. Hester has been impressive in Bears camp and could break out in his second full season at WR.
• With Marvin Harrison no longer in Indy, Anthony Gonzalez (No. 27) is another player trying to fill big shoes. With a QB as good as Peyton Manning, Gonzalez is sure to blow away his 2008 numbers (664-4).
On the way down -
• I'd be very wary of drafting Denver's Brandon Marshall right now. He's bitter about anything and everything and is nothing short of a cancer in the Broncos locker room.
• Don't touch Torry Holt. He's on a running team with a QB in David Garrard who isn't having the best of camps.
Tight ends
It's always amazing to me what happens when a premier player is injured one season, and then the next year fantasy football prognosticators develop a severe case of amnesia.
Case in point: Chargers tight end Antonio Gates. In 2008, Gates had a rough season as he battled ankle and foot injuries. But look at what Gates has done over the past four seasons: He's second in yardage (3,713) among all tight ends and absolutely blows away everybody in TD production. He has 36 touchdowns over that stretch while Tony Gonzalez (22) and Jason Witten (18) are way, way behind.
Even more amazing, Gates has the fourth-most receiving TDs of all receivers over that time. Only Randy Moss (45), Terrell Owens (44) and Larry Fitzgerald (38) have more.
So give me Gates any day. If you can grab him in the fourth or fifth round in 12-team leagues, you won't be sorry.
The next tier
After the top three names fall off the board - and once the first one falls, watch for the other two to go quickly - the Colts' Dallas Clark, the Bears' Greg Olsen and the Redskins' Chris Cooley shouldn't be far behind.
A case can even be made that Clark, who has the second-most TD catches among tight ends since 2005 with 25, should be in the top three. He blew away his career high last year with 77 catches, and ESPN.com has described the connection he has with Peyton Manning as "downright scary."
Olsen will take a big step up this season and could threaten double-digit touchdowns. With Jay Cutler's other options not exactly Pro Bowl caliber, he will lean on Olsen quite a bit. A 75-catch, 900-yard, 7-TD season seems completely plausible.
jdietz@dailyherald.com
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