Some tough QB decisions to make beyond Big Three

General Motors, Ford and Chrysler used to dominate the auto industry in the United States and around the world. The Big Three, as they are known, drove over the competition for decades.

When it comes to fantasy football quarterbacks, the league has provided its own version of the Big Three in recent years - Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. And they have helped many a fantasy team steamroll the competition year after year.

Before the rust begins to settle in and the engines begin to sputter, let's take a look at what these gunslingers have accomplished over their last five seasons:

• Manning has averaged an astounding 34.8 touchdowns and 4,149 yards per season since 2004 (when he amassed a then-record 49 TD passes).

• Brady has 31 touchdowns and 3,951 yards per season from 2003-07, including his amazing 50-TD campaign in 2007.

• And, of course, Brees nearly eclipsed Dan Marino's single-season yardage record last year with 5,069. He has averaged 28.6 TDs with 4,129 passing yards the past five seasons.

So when fantasy football draft days roll around, owners will be clamoring to get their hands on one of them. The only question is, which one figures to be the most valuable in 2009?

Many prognosticators have Brees No. 1 and I have to go that route, as well. What he did last season (11 multiple TD games and 10 300-yard games) with an often banged-up receiving corps was nothing short of remarkable. Did you know that not one Saints player amassed over 1,000 receiving yards? Brees did such a wonderful job spreading the ball around to Lance Moore (928), Devery Henderson (793), Marques Colston (740 in 11 games) and tight ends Billy Miller (579) and Jeremy Shockey (483) that it was difficult for fantasy owners to rely on any of them.

One thing owners must keep in mind is that with the NFL season starting so late, bad weather figures to affect quite a few games down the stretch. Brees has three of his last five games (taking out Week 17) in his cozy dome. The two away games are at Washington and Atlanta.

I have Brady No. 2, but his finishing schedule (vs. Carolina on Dec. 13, at Buffalo on Dec. 20 and vs. Jacksonville on Dec. 27) is daunting from a weather perspective. No one with Brady in 2007 needs to be reminded of what happened in Week 15 when he threw for just 140 yards and no touchdowns in miserable conditions against the New York Jets.

Manning is neck-and-neck with Brady in my eyes and could surpass him if WR Anthony Gonzalez proves to be 80 percent of the player Marvin Harrison was in his prime.

Moving on -

• A lot of people are really down on Kurt Warner. OK, I get the fact he's now 38 and not completely recovered from off-season hip surgery. But let's not forget Warner has two of the top 10 receivers in the league in the unstoppable Larry Fitzgerald and human battering ram Anquan Boldin. If Warner stays healthy, you're golden because Arizona's schedule down the stretch is laughable. Just purchase a little Matt Hasselbeck, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning or Brett Favre insurance just in case.

• Speaking of Favre, he's a tough one to figure. On the postitive side, he's playing in an offense he knows in Minnesota, and the Vikings' running game is so strong that there's no way defenses can allow Adrian Peterson to simply run them over. That should open up passing lanes to Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice and tight end Visanthe Shiancoe.

The negatives? Well, they include the fact that Favre will be 40 in October, and the fact he will have little time to develop any sort of chemistry with the receiving corps.

I've gone back and forth with Favre, ranking him as high as 12th, but thinking No. 15 seems to make more sense. The Vikings open with a ridiculously easy schedule, and Favre could have 12-14 TD passes by the time Week 5 is over.

• Aaron Rodgers is primed for another big season, but I'd worry about owning him down the stretch when the Packers host Baltimore on Dec. 7, then travel to Chicago and Pittsburgh before hosting Seattle in Week 16. If you can steal Atlanta's Matt Ryan, who has four of five games between Weeks 12-16 at home in the dome, he might give you a nice alternative if weather becomes an issue at that time.

• Don't reach on Jay Cutler. He'll have some big games, but with a solid defense and a fantastic running back in Matt Forte, Cutler won't be asked to put it up 40 times a game (which he did EIGHT times last year, including games of 49, 49 and 50 passes.

jdietz@dailyherald.com

Coming Friday:

John Dietz breaks down the top wide receivers, tight ends

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