One thing's for certain: No sure things this NFL season

"With the No. 1 pick in the 2009 Fantasy Football Draft, The Gunrunners select Vikings RB Adrian Peterson."

"With the No. 2 pick, the Scooby Snacks select Falcons RB Michael Turner."

"With the third pick, ..."

And that's where the dilemma be- gins this year for most fantasy football owners: Whom should be the third running back taken?

In years past, the top 5-10 RBs have been pretty clear and their preseason order doesn't vary much from Web site to Web site, from expert to expert. But after perusing several sites and magazines, one thing has become abundantly clear in 2009: Nobody can agree upon anything when it comes to ranking the RBs.

Never in my 11 years of writing fantasy football for the Daily Herald have I seen such disparity among "experts."

I believe much of this has to do with the fact there are so many teams going with two-back systems these days. Dallas, Tennessee, Carolina, Oakland, New Orleans, Denver, Baltimore and New England are all culprits, while the Jets, Redskins, Vikings, Dolphins, Colts, Eagles and Texans all plan to either sit their primary back on third down, give rookies significant playing time or bring in a goal-line back while the No. 1 guy heads to the sideline.

It certainly clouds many situations around the league. And it's one big reason you shouldn't shy away from drafting a top-tier WR or QB once the first few backs are off the board. Just remember, if you do that, try to build RB depth as the middle rounds are unfolding.

After Peterson and Turner, here's how I've ranked the players on the Herald's new Web site: fantasyfootball. dailyherald.com.

• My No. 3 is Jacksonville's Maurice Jones-Drew, who can finally emerge from Fred Taylor's shadow. Jones-Drew has been the king of 32 yards one week, 70 yards and 3 TDs or 125 yards the next. Now, his owners should be able to sit back and enjoy the consistency that comes from an every-down tailback.

• I had LaDainian Tomlinson at No. 4 and still think he could finish there, but Sunday I dropped him two spots. I'm starting to believe that DeAngelo Williams' 20-TD season wasn't a fluke and that the Bears' Matt Forte will thrive with Jay Cutler at quarterback. These two are neck and neck for the No. 4 slot, but I give Williams the slight edge, mostly based on last year's unreal finish.

When it comes to Tomlinson, it's true that he had a very subpar 2008 season (for him) with just 12 touchdowns. But he amassed 1,536 yards from scrimmage while being slowed with a groin injury. Another cause for concern is San Diego's schedule, which features several top run defenses from last year. But I'm banking on LT's pride. I'll bet he does what Thomas Jones and Curtis Martin did after they hit 30 - prove to everyone that there's still plenty of gas in the tank.

• One player I absolutely love is Houston's Steve Slaton. If your opponents let him slide deep into the second round or early third, it will be a huge steal. The Texans' offense is primed to explode, and second-year man Slaton could post monster numbers. Slaton had four 100-yard rushing days in the last seven weeks of 2008, and one of those was against Tennessee. His 105-yard average over that stretch would play out to a 1,685-yard season. One concern, however: The Texans are beginning to like the way Chris Brown runs on the goal line. Brown is a TD vulture in the making.

• In Green Bay, I like Ryan Grant to bounce back. He got off to an atrocious start in '08, but averaged 84.4 yards with 5 TDs the last 10 games. He has no competition for the lead-back role, so you are getting solid value here on a Packers team that will score a TON of points.

RB battles/timeshares

• Dallas will feature a solid running game with two unreal talents in Marion Barber and Felix Jones. If you are in a league where a flex back or player is used, Jones is the perfect player to take. Reports are the Cowboys want the ball in Jones' hands 12 times a game, and with blinding, game-breaking speed, he will put a major charge into your teams' points on more than one occasion.

• There is a lot of noise in Jets camp about rookie Shonn Greene (Iowa) either unseating or biting into Thomas Jones' playing time. This seems like a realistic possibility, but Jones has overcome position battles before and his teammates absolutely love him. Let's not also forget that the Jets have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, one that paved the way to Jones' career-high 13 rushing TDs last season. Greene is a great pick in a keeper league and as Jones' handcuff, but unless something happens in preseason, I still think Jones will have a nice season. Plus, let's not forget that Leon Washington is still in the mix, and the Jets are working on giving him a nice contract extension.

• One player that's tough to get a feel for is Pittsburgh's Willie Parker, who piled up 2,810 rushing yards in 2006-07 before missing five games in '08. He's incredibly fast and playing on a running team, but Illinois' Rashard Mendenhall will definitely get a chance to show what he can do. Parker should be solid in yardage leagues, but a real crapshoot when it comes to counting on touchdown production.

• In Buffalo, don't forget Marshawn Lynch has been suspended for the first three games. This means you must take backup Fred Jackson in the middle rounds or you risk being seriously short-handed in the early going.

<div class="infoBox"> <h1>More Coverage</h1> <div class="infoBoxContent"> <div class="infoArea"> <h2>Related links</h2> <ul class="moreWeb"> <li><a href="http://fantasyfootball.dailyherald.com/">Fantasy Football Online </a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div>