You don't want your season to end on a bad beat
In the poker world, they are known as bad beats.
You think you've won the hand, but the only card that can beat you comes up at the last minute.
Bad beats are especially painful when you're all-in, with a tournament life at stake. One minute you think you're doubling your chip count, the next you are headed for the door.
The same theory applies in the fantasy football playoffs, and in my 15 years of playing this game, I've seen and heard about some truly amazing bad beats.
• Eight years ago, there was "The Isaac Bruce Drop." That was when Bruce dropped an easy catch in the final minutes of a Monday night game that cost a Daily Herald copy desker a title. She went from hundreds of dollars to next to nothing faster than you can say, "Stickum!"
• Six years ago, the immortal Henry Burris - he of 3 career TD passes - hit Marty Booker for a completely worthless TD on a Monday night with under a minute to go, eliminating me from a semifinal.
• Two weeks ago, a subscriber to ffmastermind.com lost a first-round game by .07 points when Matt Bryant missed an extra point on Monday night.
Then there was last week. And another amazing finish.
My team was leading 53-29 entering Monday's Cleveland-Philly game. My opponent had David Akers and the Eagles defense.
No problem - 24 points is just too much to overcome, right?
Wrong.
After Asante Samuel's interception return for a touchdown and David Akers' 3 field goals and 3 extra points, I was only up 53-521/2 with 11 minutes left (sacks are worth a half-point).
Two sacks, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery, and my season is over.
Where's the Pepto when you need it?
Well, for those of you who don't know, there was 1 sack and 2 easy-as-pie interceptions that somehow were dropped.
That left us in a 53-53 tie.
So who won? Tiebreakers come down to total bench points. He had Tarvaris Jackson (4 TDs), and I had Kyle Orton, Brett Favre, Darren McFadden and the Minnesota defense, which was enough to send my team to the title game. (I should send thank-you notes to Eagles CBs Joselio Hanson and Sheldon Brown for those drops).
As I say every year, this is a prime example of why leagues need a tiebreaker system in the playoffs if they don't have one for the regular season. Make sure there is one in place.
Bad beats are always fun to read about, so send in yours or ones you've heard about to jdietz@dailyherald.com, and we'll try to run them next week.
Vote: Readers have until Monday to e-mail me their votes for the fantasy awards. There are a lot of tight races right now, so chime in with your thoughts.
Good luck: Congratulations to those of you in title games this week. Just one piece of advice: Once you decide who you are starting, don't start overthinking things.
Good bets
• Saints RB Pierre Thomas at Detroit. Thomas may be the No. 1 back of the week. He has 8 TDs the last five games, Reggie Bush is out for the season, and the Saints are facing the Lions. Enjoy!
• Patriots QB Matt Cassel vs. Arizona. Let's see, Minnesota's Tavaris Jackson threw 4 TD passes last week against Arizona, and Cassel has 11 TD passes with two 400-yard games the past five weeks. Has there ever been an 8-TD game?
• Rams WR Torry Holt vs. San Francisco. As bad as Holt's been, he still makes for a nice No. 3 WR this week.
• Niners WR Isaac Bruce at St. Louis. Bruce managed just 1 catch for 20 yards the last time he met his former team, but since then he's put together four nice games (26-333-2).
• Raiders RB Darren McFadden vs. Houston. A gut feeling here. My thinking is McFadden (451 rushing yards, 4 TDs) wants to have a huge game with fellow rookie Steve Slaton (1,124-9) in town.
• Bills RB Marshawn Lynch at Denver. A disappointment with just 4 TDs since Week 4, Lynch has a great chance to redeem himself against the pitiful Broncos run D.
• Eagles QB Donovan McNabb at Washington. Since being benched, McNabb has 7 TD passes and just 1 interception over three games.
Bad bets
• Cowboys QB Tony Romo and TE Jason Witten vs. Baltimore. Only two QBs have thrown for multiple scores against the Ravens.
• Titans RB Chris Johnson vs. Pittsburgh. No tailback has rushed for over 100 yards on the Steelers this season, and they've only allowed 5 TDs on the ground.
• Chiefs QB Tyler Thigpen vs. Miami. The Dolphins haven't allowed a passing touchdown in four of five games.
• Redskins RB Clinton Portis vs. Philadelphia. Washington's offensive line is a mess, Portis isn't 100 percent, and the team is falling apart. Expect 60-80 yards with no scores.
• Lions RB Kevin Smith vs. New Orleans. Smith isn't an awful play, but there should be 20 or more tailbacks who will outscore him this week.
• Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson at Tampa Bay. Stop the presses. I believe this is a first: LT has finally dipped into the bad bets. While it's true that Tomlinson has scored in three straight weeks, his yards-per-carry average in those games has been 1.7, 3.6 and 2.6. The Bucs figure to shut him down.
• Packers WR Donald Driver at the Bears. The football is going to be like a block of steel at 12-degree Soldier Field on Monday. Don't be the blockhead who starts Driver.
jdietz@dailyherald.com
• Read more from John at ffmastermind.com.