Best bet would be to win out, but Bears might not need to
Since the Bears frittered away an opportunity to control their own destiny by losing Sunday at the Metrodome, their best chance to make the playoffs is to win their final four games and hope Minnesota loses twice.
The 7-5 Vikings are just a game ahead of the 6-6 Bears in the standings. But the Vikings essentially have a 2-game advantage, since they currently have the advantage in tiebreakers if they wind up with the same won-loss record.
The first tiebreaker is head-to-head results, and the Bears and Vikings split the season series.
Next is won-lost record within the division; both are 3-2 with a game left. The Vikings play at Detroit, which is as close to a "gimme" as there is in the NFL. On Dec. 22, the Bears host the Packers, who throttled them 37-3 on Nov. 16.
Tiebreaker No. 3 is record against common opponents. The Vikings are 6-4, with two games (Lions and Falcons) remaining against common opponents. The Bears are 3-5 with all four of their remaining games against common opponents.
If the Bears somehow manage to make up that 2-game difference by winning out and finishing in a tie with the Vikings, it would go to tiebreaker No. 4: record against NFC opponents.
The Bears are 5-5 against the NFC with home games against the Packers and the Saints remaining. A sweep gets them to 7-5. The Vikings are 5-3 with all four remaining games against the NFC, at home against the Falcons and the Giants and on the road against the Lions and the Cardinals. A split would leave them at 7-5 as well.
If all those categories are a wash, the next tiebreakers are strength of victory and strength of schedule. (If the 5-7 Packers happen to make it a three-way tie, the only change is that the first tiebreaker becomes best head-to-head record among the three teams.)
If you're getting the impression that this whole scenario is a bit far-fetched, you're right.
It's not a stretch to imagine the Vikings losing two of their final four games, especially with Tuesday's four-game suspensions of tackles Kevin Williams and Pat Williams, the heart of their defense.
But it's a lengthy leap of faith to believe the Bears will win four in a row. They haven't won more than two in a row in almost two years, not since the end of the 2006 Super Bowl season.
Three of the Bears' last four wins are against the 0-12 Lions (twice) and the 2-10 Rams. While none of their final four games are against teams with winning records, the Jaguars (4-8), Saints (6-6), Packers (5-7) and Texans (5-7) all are better than the Lions and the Rams.
And with 3 losses in their last four games, the Bears are NOT peaking. The opposite seems to be true.
With the exception of rookie running back Matt Forte, the offense has gotten progressively worse, plummeting from 13th in total yards after seven games to 23rd, from 11th in passing yards to 21st, from a tie for second in scoring to 15th and from No. 7 in third-down conversions to No. 20.
That hardly seems like a team poised for a playoff run.
The defense continues to hover somewhere between average and mediocre, sometimes able to dominate vs. the run and other times getting manhandled (see Packers and Vikings games).
Any decent passing attack is capable of having its way with a permissive Bears defense that treats opposing quarterbacks like fine china.
Again, not good traits for a team with playoff aspirations.
Of course, if the Vikings somehow lose at Detroit on Sunday, that changes everything.
rlegere@dailyherald.com