Advice for do-or-die week: Don't overanalyze

It has arrived:

Do-or-die week for many of you in fantasyland, meaning a win and you enter the postseason; a loss and it's wait until next year. Start the wrong kicker, wrong defense or wrong tight end and it could be sayonara.

But before you reach for the Pepto Bismol or get treated for an accelerated heartbeat, here's some advice: Don't overanalyze too much. When in doubt, take your most reliable players and use them. And when it's a coin flip, it's a good idea to go with the player who is at home (if applicable), especially when it comes to quarterbacks and wide receivers.

And even though I just warned against overanalyzing, it's still OK to listen to that little voice in your head. It can save you - and I'll give you an example of one time I should have listened to my gut.

Four years ago in the semifinals, I had Peyton Manning as my QB. He was going against the vaunted Ravens defense, and I just knew he wouldn't produce any kind of big numbers. I toyed with the idea of starting the red-hot Billy Volek, who was on the Titans and going against a pathetic Raiders squad.

I asked and asked and asked, and everybody told me I was off my rocker to start BILLY VOLEK over Manning.

Well, Manning did squat. And Volek? Oh, just 492 passing yards and 5 total touchdowns.

So, if you qualify for the playoffs and Tony Romo is your QB, don't be surprised if your gut is telling you to sit him next week against the Steelers or in Week 16 against the Ravens.

Now, I'm not telling you to sit Romo for just any reserve QB on your roster. But, there are at least five players worth using down the stretch - whether you have Romo or not - if you have the opportunity, including ...

• New England's Matt Cassel (815 yards, 7 total TDs last two). It's probably a good idea to sit Mr. 400-yard Wonder boy this week against the Steelers, but after that, he gets to face Seattle, Oakland (a so-so matchup) and Arizona.

• New York Jets' Brett Favre (4 TDs last two). Yes, the old geezer still has it, and I guarantee you this: If my team doesn't clinch the bye for the playoffs this week, Favre will be in my lineup instead of Romo in Week 14 because Favre takes on San Francisco. Week 16 looks good too: at Seattle.

• Kansas City's Tyler Thigpen (7 TDs last three). Here's a schedule that looks as good as the pumpkin pie on the table tonight: at Denver, then hosting San Diego and Miami.

• San Francisco's Shaun Hill (7 total TDs last three). This could be the Volek scenario all over again because in Week 16, the Niners play - St. Louis! I see 300-350 yards and 3-4 TDs in Hill's future.

• The Bears' Kyle Orton. As long as the weather holds, Orton has Jacksonville and New Orleans at Soldier Field in Weeks 14 and 15. If Orton plays well in Minnesota this week, he's worth a shot if your options are weak.

My teams: Terrell Owens (21 points) and Tony Romo (23) enabled me to hold off the Randy Moss onslaught in an 81-71 victory in the unit league (7-5). A win next week gives me the division title and a first-round bye. A loss and I could conceivably miss the playoffs. In the regular league, I lost 108-61 and fell to 6-6, but the playoffs are a sure thing thanks to a rule dictating the final two teams qualify based on total points.

Good bets

• Titans RB Chris Johnson at Detroit. Rejoice, disgruntled Johnson owners and feast your eyes on this upcoming stat line: 125 rushing yards and 1-2 touchdowns. It'll look as good as the bird in the oven.

• Cardinals WR Steve Breaston at Philadelphia. This is a risky pick, but Breaston should be a solid WR3 play against a reeling Eagles squad.

• Bears WR Devin Hester at Minnesota. Now that Hester isn't returning kicks anymore, I think he's become a relevant fantasy receiver again.

• Vikings WR Bernard Berrian vs. Bears. He's been atrocious lately (4 catches in the last three games), but he's good for a minimum of 80 yards against his former team.

• Dolphins QB Chad Pennington and RB Ricky Williams at St. Louis. Most Dolphins are solid plays in this game.

• Bills QB Trent Edwards vs. San Francisco. The Niners have allowed 16 passing TDs over the last eight games.

• Raiders RB Darren McFadden vs. Kansas City. If you've been storing McFadden on your bench all year, this is the time to unleash him ... and hope his touches increase because he could really produce in the fantasy playoffs.

Bad bets

• Lions RB Kevin Smith vs. Tennessee. Smith has had decent to good fantasy days the past four weeks. That ends today against the Titans.

• Giants QB Eli Manning at Washington. Don't get too pumped up about Manning's 3-TD performance in the desert Sunday. He'll come crashing back to earth against a tough Redskins pass D.

• Browns RB Jamal Lewis vs. Indianapolis. At first glance this may seem like a nice matchup for Lewis. But I see an early, big lead by the Colts ... leading to a sulking, petulant Lewis on the sidelines after about 8 carries.

• Patriots QB Matt Cassel vs. Pittsburgh. Umm, that 400-yard streak of Cassel's is about to come to a crashing halt. Use him only if your other options are fairly pathetic.

• Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe at Oakland. With shutdown corner Nnamdi Asomugha likely shadowing Bowe everywhere he goes, a statline like 4-45-0 feels about right.

jdietz@dailyherald.com

• Read more from John at ffmastermind.com and listen to him each Thursday in the 1 p.m. hour with Mike Murphy on WSCR 670-AM.