District 158 needs to prepare for high school growth

Discussions began last week on what to do when Huntley High School fills up.

As I noted earlier this week, the district's enrollment data shows the school could be at capacity in just three years.

That's even without a housing recovery.

If housing picks up again, new students from new homes could accelerate the enrollment trend at the high school.

The district's enrollment projections show that under the most aggressive scenario, the high school could fill up by 2010.

This probably won't happen. Even if housing begins to recover over the next couple years, it will take a long time for the real estate market to return to where it was just a few years ago - spurring double-digit enrollment growth in area school districts.

And as District 158 officials noted this week, new homes impact the lower grade levels the most because of the young families moving into new subdivisions.

That's true, but only in the short term. Eventually, the growth at the lower grades will matriculate up into the higher grades - including the high school.

Actually, that's partly the reason the high school will be full in a few years. The current middle school classes that will be entering high school are about 180 students larger than the senior classes they will be replacing.

The growth will only continue. This year's drop of kindergartners in District 158 has about 710 students - about 320 more than this year's graduating class.

That doesn't mean the same rate of growth at the high school - about 180 students a year - will be sustained five to 10 years from now.

If the housing recovery is slow or slight, the district will see steady, moderate growth at the high school after the first three years of growth in the upper single digits.

The big variable, of course, is housing. The district's six-day enrollment report shows the district is tracking close to the most conservative scenario outlined in the district's most-recent enrollment study.

That scenario assumes little or no growth from new housing. If the housing market recovers even moderately, the district's numbers at the lower grades could be inflated and lead to continued annual growth of 100 or more students.

The bottom line? Even under the most conservative scenario, the district has little choice but to weigh options for building classroom space that will be ready in three to five years.

As I noted earlier this week, at least three options are on the table: a new high school, an addition to the current high school and a middle school building that would serve as a freshman-only building until the district needs it.

There's a fourth option outlined in the district's 2007 building plan: a "starter high school" with about 950 students that would take an estimated three years and $31.1 million dollars to build.

This option would allow the district to borrow less money upfront and operate two high schools with more than 1,000 students - enough to support a full range of programs and class offerings.

Residents of District 158 will have an opportunity to weigh in on which option the district should pursue when the district conducts a survey during the next six months.

If you live in the district, be sure to take advantage of this opportunity.

After all, it's your tax dollars - and your kids.