Where have those big-name receivers gone?

It happens every year.

We draft cream-of-the-crop receivers in the first 3-4 rounds, expecting huge numbers and easy wins.

Then Week 4 or 5 arrives and we wonder, "What in the world happened to Braylon Edwards, Torry Holt and Chad Johnson?"

There's a lesson to be learned here, but one that seems difficult to grasp for many fantasy football owners.

You can pretty much guarantee that half of the WRs in any expert's top-10 predictions in August will be languishing behind no-names like Lance Moore and Brandon Lloyd in October.

And this is a particularly brutal year with just three receivers ranking in the top 30 and eight in the top 68 in fantasy scoring. Last year, 10 receivers finished in the top 46.

Some of this has to do with Tom Brady's season-ending injury (Randy Moss owners, feel free to pause and throw up), and some of it is due to the fact that big-name QBs such as Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer and Marc Bulger can't hit the broad side of a barn.

(Another subtle reason this year may have to do with the new rule that receivers must keep two feet inbounds to get credit for a reception. DBs can push players out of bounds now before the second foot gets down, negating catches - and sometimes touchdowns.)

Add in the fact that receivers are a fickle, injury-prone bunch, and you can see why volatility is so high.

In addition to Moss' owners, those of you with T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Santonio Holmes, Holt, Johnson, Edwards, Roy Williams (8 catches!) and Andre Johnson are also all reaching for the barf bag. All of them have 1 touchdown catch, except for Andre Johnson, who has zero.

And what do all of them have in common? A struggling QB.

It's tough to sit any of these big names right now because nobody wants to be the guy who leaves someone like Laveranues Coles (3 TDs last week) on the bench. But if nobody in your league has Meacham, Moore, Steve Breaston, Amani Toomer or Chansi Stuckey, take a long look at them and take the leap.

Just remember: It's often easier to fix a WR dilemma than a RB problem.

Depth at running back is crucial when injuries strike your players, but especially when they strike your opponents. Somebody in your league is desperate to replace Willie Parker or Rashard Mendenhall right now.

If you have the RB depth, gladly hand them one in exchange for one of their better wide receivers.

And remember all this when draft day comes around next year.

My teams: So, when does next year start anyway? My run of horrid luck continued as I fell 72-71 in my unit league (1-3). I'll place the blame on the Denver defense for allowing Kansas City to go over 30 points, "earning" me minus-3 points. Brandon Marshall's lost fumble (-1) also ended up killing me.

I squeaked out a win in my regular league (1-3) 101-97 thanks to Kurt Warner's bizarre day and timely pickups of Saints WRs Robert Meacham (17 points) and Devery Henderson (8).

Good bets

• Bears RB Matt Forte at Detroit. Against the Lions, Forte figures to approach 200 yards from scrimmage and score at least once.

• Giants WR Amani Toomer vs. Seattle. With Plaxico Burress suspended, Toomer (11-131-1 last two) makes for a solid No. 3 fantasy WR this week.

• Texans RB Steve Slaton vs. Indianapolis. Here are how the other feature backs have done against the Colts: Forte, 123 yards; Vikings' Adrian Peterson, 160 yards; Jaguars' Fred Taylor (121) and Maurice Jones-Drew (107).

• Panthers QB Jake Delhomme vs. Kansas City. Facing the first good quarterback they've seen this year, the Chiefs gave up 361 passing yards to Jay Cutler last week. Delhomme is a good bet for 250 yards and 2 TDs.

• Bucs RB Earnest Graham at Denver. The Broncos have allowed 5 rushing TDs the last two weeks.

• Bills QB Trent Edwards at Arizona. Let's give Edwards another shot this week. He figures to break his streak of 1-TD games (which stands at four).

• Saints WR Lance Moore vs. Minnesota. In Marques Colston's absence, Moore (14-179-2 last two) has become Drew Brees' go-to guy.

Bad bets

• Giants QB Eli Manning vs. Seattle. It may be odd to some of you that Manning is in the bad bets, while a Giants receiver is in the good bets. But that's because Toomer may haul in 50-65 percent of Manning's passes this weekend. The QB himself will be lucky to throw for 2 scores, however.

• Seahawks RB Julius Jones at New York Giants. That Giants defense (1 rush TD allowed) is tough to run on.

• Broncos WR Eddie Royal vs. Tampa Bay. The Bucs have done a good job of shutting down other teams' No. 2 WRs.

• Jaguars RBs Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor vs. Pittsburgh. Running on the Steelers (top three in rush defense four years running) is never an easy proposition.

• Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger at Jacksonville. Big Ben - ranked below Kyle Orton, JaMarcus Russell and Brian Griese in fantasy points - is entering Bust of the Year territory.

jdietz@dailyherald.com

• Read more from John at ffmastermind.com, and hear him most Thursdays in the 1 p.m. hour with Mike Murphy on WSCR 670-AM.