Undervalued backs may help lead you to a fantasy title
Welcome back, everybody!
The favorite time of year for millions of fantasy football fanatics has arrived.
This is a special year for the Daily Herald - our 10th straight season of breaking down the studs and duds to help readers forge ahead toward season championships.
So, without further adieu, let's get started with our running backs preview.
OK, we all know who the first two picks will be in many draft - LaDainian Tomlinson and the Vikings' Adrian Peterson.
But let's talk about three players whom the late comedian Rodney Dangerfield could appreciate as they are all getting ... no respect.
Our terrific, if not terribly undervalued, trio is: Dallas' Marion Barber, Green Bay's Ryan Grant and Tampa Bay's Earnest Graham.
On a search of six Web sites, Barber had an average ranking of ninth (high of sixth); Grant's average was 13th (high of 11th); and Graham 21st (high of 12th, low of 29th!)
On one hand, I can see the trepidation in wanting to put too much faith in these unproven legs. After all, they have a combined grand total of zero 1,000-yard seasons.
But let's look at the positives of each player, and the reasons I have them in the top 16, with Barber fifth.
Marion Barber: Here's a guy who runs with such reckless abandon, it's actually one reason to be worried. But you've got to love that toughness. Barber has 28 touchdowns the past two seasons. Guess how many other running backs can better that total?
Yep - one, and you know who it is. Maurice Jones-Drew (24), Larry Johnson (23), Steven Jackson (23) and Joseph Addai (23) all fall well short.
And let's not forget something: Barber did all of this as the backup running back. He has yet to eclipse 205 carries in a season.
Some may worry that rookie Felix Jones is going to steal some of Barber's thunder, but don't be. Barber, who averaged 85 yards per game when he had at least 14 carries, will still be a scoring machine.
Some backs I see ranked ahead of Barber are Addai (which is understandable), Kansas City's Johnson, Washington's Clinton Portis, San Francisco's Frank Gore and Buffalo's Marshawn Lynch.
Here's another reason I disagree with these assessments: three of these guys play on teams with horrendous offenses.
The Cowboys are a juggernaut, capable of piling up 24-28 points a game. You have to take that into consideration when drafting a tailback. That, combined with Barber becoming the man, makes him a top-five selection.
Ryan Grant: I love the way this guy runs. The 6-foot-1, 218-pounder out of Notre Dame burst onto the scene last season in Week 8 and never looked back. Project his numbers out for an entire season, and Grant would have had 1,486 yards and 13 TDs.
So what's wrong now?
No Brett Favre? Big deal.
Tweaked hammy? Well, the longer that goes on, the bigger deal it becomes, but that's why you draft backup Brandon Jackson as insurance.
I believe the Packers' offense will put up plenty of points despite having to face the Vikings and Bears twice.
To me, Grant is a better pick than Gore, who does have Mike Martz as an offensive coordinator now but is on a team without a quarterback or any decent receivers.
Earnest Graham: Tampa Bay doesn't have the most prolific offense, and Graham is 28 years old. But it's difficult to argue with what the 5-foot-9, 225-pound bruiser accomplished last season, scoring in six straight weeks down the stretch and finishing with 49 receptions.
Who's to say a 1,250-yard, 12-TD, 70-catch season isn't possible?
The warning lights flashing in front of Graham doubters come in the form of 33-year-old Warrick Dunn and the injured Carnell Williams. If Graham can keep them off the field, watch for a big season. If he fails, you would have been better off taking Laurence Maroney, Brandon Jacobs, Edgerrin James, Michael Turner and even Thomas Jones.
But my gut says Graham does the job.
Other story lines
Grabbing two solid running backs has become more important than ever. The shared-back systems employed by more and more teams are keeping mileage off their tailbacks, but it's also perplexing more and more fantasy owners.
Last season, the top 10 RBs averaged just 20.2 carries per game (with Marshawn Lynch's 21.5 the high). In 2003-04, the average for the top 10 backs was 22.7 carries per game.
This has led many owners to shy away from taking a running back with their first or second pick. In some cases, it makes more sense to grab Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Randy Moss or Terrell Owens than a tailback you're not sure you can count on.
So let's finish off this column with a look at some players who may drop to you, and others who may be diamonds in the rough.
Willie Parker, Steelers: Many owners will shy away from Parker because Pittsburgh drafted Illinois product Rashard Mendenhall. I, however, believe Parker is playing in the perfect offense and is out to prove he's still got plenty left in the tank. If he's your second running back, get ready to smile all the way to the bank.
Laurence Maroney, Patriots: New England figures to run a bit more this season. And you can't ask for a better coach than Bill Belichick to adjust game plans to fit the situation. Last season, Belichick ran Maroney over and over again in the bad weather and it led to 260 rushing yards and 2 TDs in Weeks 15-16. Maroney is a decent No. 2 back with good upside.
DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, Panthers: Take one, and you must get the other. Williams is impressing in camp and may finally become the back Carolina envisioned when they took him in the first round two years ago. Of course, Stewart (who has been slowed by a toe injury) was taken in the first round this year, so a major battle for playing time is still brewing.
Ronnie Brown, Dolphins: If he didn't get hurt last season, Brown was looking at a 1,400 yards rushing, 800 receiving and 12 touchdowns. He led all fantasy backs in points after Week 7, but now there are legitimate questions because of Brown's torn ACL. Take a chance on him as your third back (and grab Ricky Williams later), and if Brown's healthy, he could present tough decisions for you on game day.
Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden, Raiders: How the playing time gets divided up in Oakland is still anybody's guess. But here's one thing that's for sure: this team will have to run the ball, and whoever gets the nod should post solid numbers. This is another situation where you pretty much need to take both guys and hope one establishes himself.
Chris Johnson, Titans: There's been nothing but rave reviews coming out of Tennessee about this rookie from East Carolina. He's a great pick midway through drafts when your opponents are taking defenses and kickers.
Ray Rice, Ravens: After Willis McGahee's knee cleanout, Rice may actually start in Week 1. He's been impressive in camp, and if McGahee falters, watch for the rookie to get plenty of touches.
Deep in drafts: If you want to steal somebody's handcuff pick and reap the benefits if the starter goes down, then consider: Chester Taylor (Vikings), Ladell Betts (Redskins), Ahmad Bradshaw (Giants), Mendenhall, Felix Jones (Cowboys) and LaMont Jordan (Patriots).
• Read more fantasy advice from John at ffmastermind.com and catch him on the Score (WSCR 670-AM) Thursday's with Mike Murphy in the 1 p.m. hour.