Dist. 300 grants new enrollment study

The Community Unit District 300 school board has commissioned a new enrollment study -- spurning a firm whose projections were dogged by controversy for another that is twice as costly.

The board last week voted 5-2 to pay University of North Carolina professor John Kasarda $18,600 to project District 300's enrollment for the next five school years.

The new study will be the district's first since October 2006, when Lisle-based Ehlers & Associates updated its controversial projections from February 2005.

A new Ehlers study would have cost the district an estimated $9,625.

Supporters of District 300's successful referendum in 2006 often cited the 2005 Ehlers study as evidence the district would continue to see explosive enrollment growth, especially on the west side of the district.

But the growth leveled off, and the district's enrollment fell short of the Ehlers projections.

David Lundeen, a financial adviser with Ehlers who prepared the study, said it's not his fault his projections fell short.

"I had no way to know there was going to be a problem with the housing," Lundeen said. "That's the reason we present two or three scenarios because we know there are things that happen that would cause those numbers to be missed."

But district officials and referendum supporters seized on the more aggressive scenario Lundeen prepared, which predicted enrollment would increase by 7,200 students by 2009.

This year, the district's enrollment, 19,502 according to 30-day enrollment numbers, is less than the more conservative Ehlers scenario, which predicted the district would have 19,689 students in 2007-08.

Referendum supporters blame the housing slump for the discrepancy, but critics said the district exaggerated its projections to get voters to approve the 2006 tax hike and bond request.

Hoping to avoid the controversy the Ehlers study generated, former referendum supporters and critics backed a new study by Kasarda, a well-known demographer who studied the district's enrollment in the past.

"There has been so much criticism of the Ehlers study that it gives us an opportunity to get a different point of view," said board President Joe Stevens, who had supported the referendum.

Board members said Kasarda would better address crowding in east-side schools because Kasarda takes into account growth within existing households -- giving districts a better estimate of coming growth in areas that already have been developed.

But Lundeen said the differences between Kasarda and Ehlers aren't that great.

"We don't ignore the existing population," Lundeen said. "I don't see much difference in the methodology of the two firms."

Kasarda did not return a call seeking comment.

Chris Stanton, while voting for the Kasarda study, said board members hoping to dodge controversy shouldn't get their hopes up.

Kasarda studied the district's enrollment in 1997.

"Everybody was complaining about Kasarda numbers back then," Stanton said.

Lundeen agreed, saying, "That's the reason they switched over to us."