St. Charles schools enrollment slows

St. Charles School District 303 enrollment is tapering off, according to a new study that defies earlier projections indicating thousands of new students were on their way.

School administrators and municipal land planners blame the plummeting economy and housing market slowdown for contradictory predictions in two Northern Illinois University studies the district commissioned early this year and in 2004.

"This was a shock to most people, both within the system and outside the system," Superintendent Don Schlomann said recently. "This could not have been foreseen by anybody."

The first study projected enrollment swelling to about 14,800 students by 2007; it actually hovered at 13,700. Looking ahead, the discrepancy widens, with NIU now projecting enrollment dwindling to 13,400 by 2014 rather than increasing to 17,300 as estimated four years ago.

The 2004 study predicting an enrollment explosion has twice been used to justify multimillion referendum requests to build new schools. But taxpayers rejected them both times.

Now Schlomann says the district might need additional and more specific studies to get a better idea of what trends to expect and where. The information is vital to making "rational decisions" regarding budgets, facilities and transportation, he said.

"What the study doesn't tell us is anything in regards to the areas of growth, whether it's increasing or declining west or east" of the district's unofficial dividing line, the Fox River, the superintendent said.

The district also might need advice from someone such as a demographer who can speculate professionally "because it's such an anomaly," he added.

The findings were presented at a recent community forum. For the most part, Schlomann said, people were taken aback and wanted more information. Those at the forum are part of a yearlong effort known as Summit 303, which is expected to conclude this fall with a list of recommendations about the future of the district. Some already are calling for the district to bring in a third party to "verify the numbers," Schlomann said.

NIU representatives said projections looking forward beyond five years "can be very unstable" and need to be updated on a regular basis.

Schlomann noted that some parents are asking whether the different projections would have altered controversial school boundary revisions early last year. The changes were based on a separate study whose projections also fell short by about 1,000 students, officials said.

"It's hard for me to address that," said Schlomann, who was hired in July. "Getting down to that level of detail and talking about boundaries, it's much more extensive than what we paid (about $4,000) for from NIU."