For GOP contenders, Illinois is up for grabs

Mike Huckabee in Iowa.

John McCain in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Mitt Romney in Michigan, Nevada and Wyoming.

With early contests yielding three winners, the Republican presidential nomination race is wide open as it heads to Florida on Tuesday and then Illinois -- along with 22 other states -- on Feb. 5.

While Barack Obama figures to win his home state comfortably on the Democratic side, the Republican contest is up for grabs with Illinois balloting only 12 days away.

Five active Republican candidates -- Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul in addition to McCain, Romney and Huckabee -- have assembled full or nearly full slates of convention delegates across Illinois. That means any combination of the five could capture a share of the 57 delegates at stake in primary balloting.

Giuliani, conspicuously absent from any winner's circle so far, may nonetheless fare well in Illinois, particularly if he gains momentum in Florida.

"Giuliani, I think, would have appeal, particularly in the suburbs and also in Springfield and Sangamon County (home of Springfield)," said Mike Lawrence, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University.

Lawrence and Paul Green, director of the Institute for Politics at Roosevelt University in Chicago and Schaumburg, agree that the former New York City mayor's fiscal conservatism and moderate social views align well with prevailing attitudes of suburban Republicans.

"I think this is a moderate blue state no matter what social conservatives say," Green said.

But momentum also counts and Green said anyone who becomes "molten" with big wins leading up to Feb. 5 might do well in Illinois. McCain may not be lava-hot after his South Carolina win, but a Florida victory would put pressure on his opponents heading into Feb. 5. Lawrence said factors that aid McCain elsewhere could play well here, too.

"He is viewed as being his own person," Lawrence said, "and he's got a really powerful personal story."

And McCain's campaign co-chairman in Illinois, state Rep. Jim Durkin, argued that his candidate defies usual "conservative" and "moderate" labels.

"He's not as liberal as Giuliani on social issues," Durkin said, "but he doesn't use those as wedge issues."

Huckabee's appeal among evangelical Christians gave him a victory in Iowa. But his momentum has slowed. He finished second to McCain in South Carolina, considered the best state for him to claim front-runner status, and has scaled back his Florida effort because of money shortages.

Neither Green nor Lawrence expects Huckabee to fare well in Illinois, where moderate Republicans are predominant. But Charles Wheeler, director of the public affairs reporting program at the University of Illinois at Springfield, said the block of eight counties in southeastern Illinois that went for Alan Keyes in the 2004 U.S. Senate race might be fertile ground for Huckabee, too.

"Legislators from that area tend to be very socially conservative. For gun rights. Against gay rights," Wheeler said. "The culture of that area tends to be very religious and it might be an area where Huckabee would do well."

Socially conservative Republican candidates also might fare better than expected if, as some observers predict, significant numbers of moderate Republicans take Democratic ballots in order to vote for Obama.

"I don't have any empirical evidence," Lawrence said. "But I have talked with several Republicans who plan to vote for Obama. They like him, and they've got Bush fatigue and some of them have got Clinton fatigue as well. They're looking for somebody new."

Even if it means crossing party lines?

"I think it's a positive vote for them," Lawrence said. "They want to feel good about their vote, and they like him."

Green acknowledged that possibility but said GOP voters who have competitive congressional races on the ballot -- such as the Jim Oberweis-Chris Lauzen contest in the 14th Congressional District -- are not likely to cross party lines.

While neither Romney nor Paul matches the moderate profile considered most appealing to Illinois Republicans, both have large delegate slates. Both have worked to build their organizations here. And because party rules award Illinois delegates according to votes in each congressional district, all five Republican hopefuls could walk away with delegates.

Whatever their final decisions, Illinois voters will make up their minds with little firsthand exposure to the candidates. GOP strategists are focused so intently on high-stakes Florida that few have firmed up campaign plans for Illinois or the other states, including delegate-rich New York, New Jersey and California, that will be in play on Feb. 5.

Once Florida votes on Jan. 29, each candidate will face a daunting speed-dating test: How to court voters in more than 20 states in one week.

"I chuckle. I chortle. I smirk." Green said. "We moved up the primary so we'd have a say in Illinois, but so did everybody else. We may not see anybody here; we're going to be buried under all the other states."

There will be a handful of candidate sightings in Illinois. Giuliani's campaign has scheduled several events -- including the DuPage Lincoln Day dinner -- in the state for Feb. 1 and 2. McCain has a brief airport stop in the state "penciled in" for Feb. 2.

TV ads in Illinois? Durkin expressed doubts, calling the pileup of nearly two dozen primaries on the same day a campaign-finance disaster.

Any candidates who do have money left may well have the inside track. As Green noted, "candidates that can go on TV in these large states are going to have a (big) advantage."