Warning: Don't be so quick to count out Chargers, Giants
According to the wise guys in Las Vegas and the media know-it-alls, a New England Patriots-Green Bay Packers Super Bowl is a foregone conclusion.
But it's a mistake to so casually dismiss the San Diego Chargers and New York Giants.
Neither of this weekend's underdogs -- the Chargers by 14 points and the Giants by 7 -- made it to the verge of Super Bowl XLII without beating some long odds, and both teams have shown the ability to overcome adversity.
Despite being 11-point underdogs against the Indianapolis Colts, the Chargers prevailed last weekend even though they finished the game without their starting quarterback, Phillip Rivers, and the best running back in the NFL, LaDainian Tomlinson.
In addition, the Chargers' top receiving threat, tight end Antonio Gates, was limited by a dislocated toe and had just 2 catches for 28 yards.
Still, the Chargers won their eighth game in a row, and all three of their injured offensive standouts are expected to be healthier for the Patriots than they were at the end of last week's game.
The Colts game was the only one in the last eight in which the San Diego defense, which is playing its best football of the season, allowed more than 17 points, and that group remains healthy.
The two teams that came the closest to defeating the Patriots this year -- the Philadelphia Eagles and the Giants, both of whom lost by 3 points -- were much better statistically running the ball than throwing it. So are the Chargers, despite Rivers' impressive postseason production.
San Diego probably needs a relatively healthy Tomlinson to pull off the biggest upset of the season, but maybe not. North Chicago High School graduate and former Northern Illinois star Michael Turner may be the best No. 2 running back in the NFL, and No. 3 running back Darren Sproles went 56 yards for a touchdown with a screen pass against the Colts on his only reception.
As for the Giants, they have become the ultimate road warriors, winning nine straight games as visitors, including two in the postseason. So a road trip to frigid Green Bay is unlikely to faze Tom Coughlin's team.
Although the Giants have been without former Pro Bowl tight end Jeremy Shockey since his season-ending knee injury in Game 15, quarterback Eli Manning has played better in the past three games than at any time in his four-year career. In those three games, against teams with a combined record of 38-10 in the regular season (Patriots, Bucs and Cowboys), Manning has thrown 8 touchdown passes and just 1 interception.
Last week, the Packers were able to make the Seahawks one-dimensional by eliminating the run game, but Seattle had one of the NFL's worst running attacks while the Giants have one of the best.
Six-foot-4, 264-pound Brandon Jacobs from Southern Illinois is powerful enough to hurt the Packers inside, while rookie Ahmad Bradshaw provides a perfect complement with his speed and quickness, a change of pace that can be confounding for a defense.
And don't forget, the Packers are quite capable of a letdown. They've only lost three games in the last 13½ months, but two of them were to the Bears this season, including a 35-7 defeat less than a month ago.