Friendly fantasy warning concerning Roethlisberger
How about those games last week?
It's been awhile since we've seen so many high-flying individual performances all on the same Sunday.
From Dallas' Terrell Owens and Tony Romo to New England's Tom Brady and Randy Moss to Minnesota's Chester Taylor, teams in many of your leagues probably set season highs in point totals.
It was a week to remember, but none of those five players is the subject of this week's column.
One of my jobs as a fantasy football writer is to smell trouble before it arrives and warn our readers so you can make necessary adjustments in time to save a week -- and maybe a season.
So who worries me right now? Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
Here's a guy who is having a fantastic season with 23 TD passes and 1 rushing TD. In one of my leagues, he's sixth in points among QBs and just 5 points away from Cleveland's Derek Anderson, who is in third.
I'm concerned because the "mild" high ankle sprain suffered by Santonio Holmes could derail Roethlisberger. Holmes (39-644-7) has been outstanding this season and is Big Ben's most reliable target.
Holmes missed one game this season (Week 5 vs. Seattle), and Roethlisberger had 206 passing yards and 1 TD.
Even more telling is this: After Holmes went down last week in the fourth quarter, Roethlisberger was just 1 of 4 passing and was sacked three times, losing a fumble on one of the sacks.
The Jets sacked Roethlisberger seven times Sunday -- an astounding number for a defense that came into the game with 9 sacks all season. Roethlisberger has been sacked 30 times this year after being dumped 46 times last season (the second-highest total in Steelers history behind Cliff Stoudt's 51 in 1983, according to the Pittsburgh Post Gazette).
The good news, theoretically, is Pittsburgh plays Miami (0-10) and Cincinnati (3-7) the next two weeks. It's good news only in theory, however, because the Jets (2-8) were supposed to be pushovers and the Steelers lost an ugly game in overtime.
If Holmes' injury keeps him out longer than two weeks -- a distinct possibility -- the Steelers then face New England and Jacksonville with the fantasy playoffs in full swing.
So keep your eye on this situation, and if you are sensing what I'm sensing, don't be afraid to gobble up another quarterback and take your chances elsewhere.
Waiver wire: Priest Holmes' retirement Wednesday means that rookie Kolby Smith is the lead back in Kansas City. Smith hasn't shown us much yet (10 carries for 19 yards), but if you need help, grab him. The severity of Larry Johnson's foot injury remains a mystery, meaning Smith could start the rest of the year. …
With Giants RB Brandon Jacobs hurting, some owner in every league should have Reuben Droughns and Derrick Ward on their teams. Droughns figures to get most of the work this week against a stout Vikings defense, but there is a report that Ward will also play. And if Jacobs' hamstring causes him to miss more than just a week, Droughns and Ward owners will be the beneficiaries. …
Please tell me somebody in every league owns Seahawks WR D.J. Hackett. He has 3 TD catches and 295 yards the past three games. He's an every-week starter in most formats, especially since Seattle has clearly gone to a pass-first attack.
My teams: An unbelievable week. My unit-league squad (8-3) recorded the second-highest total in league history in a 119-55 victory. Tony Romo (24 points), Terrell Owens (34) and Chester Taylor (31) led the way. My regular-league team (8-3) also won, 134-86, thanks to Owens (50) and decent games by everybody else.
Good bets
• Packers WR Greg Jennings and TE Donald Lee vs. Detroit. Happy Turkey Day, everyone! Get things off to a fast start with this double helping of points. Jennings has been red-hot, and Lee has been productive for three straight games.
• Lions WR Shaun McDonald vs. Green Bay. The unheralded McDonald has 24 catches for 328 yards and a TD the last four games.
• Titans QB Vince Young vs. Cincinnati. I'm not listing Young here just because of his solid game against the Broncos. No, this is more an indictment on the Bengals' pass defense, which has allowed the Chiefs' Damon Huard (2 TDs, 264 yards), the Jets' Chad Pennington (3 TDs, 272 yards) and the Bills' J.P. Losman (1 TD, 295 yards) to have big games, among others.
• Texans QB Matt Schaub vs. Cleveland. In the three games with WR Andre Johnson in the lineup this year, Schaub has 5 TD passes and 1 interception and is averaging 248 passing yards. This week he figures to post monster numbers against the woeful Browns.
• Chiefs RB Kolby Smith vs. Oakland. I'm not predicting Chester Taylor-like production here, but I think Smith goes over 85 yards and scores at least once.
• Seahawks WR D.J. Hackett vs. St. Louis. It's nice to see my preseason sleeper has finally woken up.
• Bucs WR Joey Galloway vs. Washington. The first five weeks, the Redskins had barricaded end zones, allowing just 2 passing touchdowns. The last five weeks? Opposing teams have plowed through those barricades with 15 passing TDs.
• Arizona defense vs. San Francisco. I'm not saying Antrel Rolle is going to take 2 more interceptions back for scores, like he did last week vs. Cincinnati, but the Cardinals' defense (10 turnovers last two weeks) is worth a look vs. the lowly Niners.
• Bears RB Cedric Benson vs. Denver. My first Bears sleeper of the year, and it comes in the form of the embattled Benson. My gut says Ron Turner hands him the ball 22-25 times and he gets his second 100-yard game of the season.
Bad bets
• Lions RB Kevin Jones vs. Green Bay. Against the tough Packers' D, Jones will struggle.
• Jets RB Thomas Jones vs. Dallas. Just because you saw Jones go over 100 against the vaunted Steelers defense last week doesn't mean he should be in your lineup today. He'll be held under 65 yards and still won't have found the end zone this season by game's end.
• Giants QB Eli Manning vs. Minnesota. It's tempting to list Manning as a good bet against this defense, but with Plaxico Burress' ankle in bad shape, I'm not going to do it. Since his 4-TD explosion in Week 1, Manning has just 11 TD passes with 10 INTs in nine games.
• Rams QB Marc Bulger and WR Isaac Bruce vs. Seattle. Here's a stat that blew me away: The Seahawks have given up just 5 passing TDs all season, and none over the last four weeks.
• Chargers QB Philip Rivers and WR Chris Chambers vs. Baltimore. For as average as the Ravens' defense has been this year, the unit still hasn't allowed a passing TD in four of the past five games. And that includes games against the Bengals' Carson Palmer and the Browns' Derek Anderson.
• Eagles WR Kevin Curtis vs. New England. Curtis has only two good weeks all season. Take those away and he is averaging 47.5 yards per game with no TDs.
• Dolphins RB Jesse Chatman vs. Pittsburgh. The Steelers allowed a 100-yard rusher last week for the first time in 1,500 games. OK, not really, but these guys are going to be mad and that's bad news for Chatman owners.
• Bears' defense vs. Denver. It's been a rough season for owners (like myself) who used an earlier-than-normal draft pick on the Bears' D. The unit has just 5 turnovers and 13 sacks the past five weeks. There are better options available.