Kane Co. cop key to solving tomorrow's crimes today
If you ask people to create a list of valuable crime-fighting tools, a computer probably doesn't crack the top 10.
But that's precisely what Kane County Sheriff's Deputy Jim Caulfield relies on. He uses it to predict where and when the next burglary or armed robbery is going to take place within the 540 square miles served by the sheriff's office.
By tracking crime trends, Caulfield tries to get a squad car on the scene to arrest the bad guys when they commit their next crime.
Crime analysis combines traditional policing with high-tech mapping. Think of it as Kane County's answer to the "pre-crime" unit depicted in the 2002 Tom Cruise film "Minority Report."
"This is all being done with the hope of preventing crime rather than responding to crime," said Sheriff Pat Perez, who appointed Caulfield to the department's new one-man crime analysis unit.
Because of his analysis of a string of car burglaries in western Kane County, Caulfield was able to pinpoint when the next burglary would take place. Authorities sent an officer to the area who observed "suspicious activity" and made an arrest, Caulfield said.
"We haven't had a burglary out there since," he said.
A 32-year department veteran, Caulfield's early crime analysis days were spent sticking pins in a map to determine trends. The theory hasn't changed much over the years, but the practice has gone high-tech.
A year ago, the sheriff's office began working with the county's information technology department to use global positioning system technology as the basis for a computer mapping program.
The computer is updated daily to reflect the time and location of every 911 call and crime reported in the area served by the sheriff's office. That area includes all of unincorporated Kane County, plus small towns like Virgil, Maple Park, Lily Lake, Burlington and Big Rock, all of which rely on the sheriff's office for policing.
"I just look for groupings," Caulfield said.
He enters the patterns into a spreadsheet. While he can't go into details for fear of publicizing trade secrets that could jeopardize his work, Caulfield pointed to a complex mathematical formula he uses to estimate tomorrow's crimes today. He wrote the formula into a computer program so now all he has to do is plug numbers into it to calculate the probability of the crime occurring again.
He learned the formula and other tips at a one-week training class earlier this year hosted by the Crystal Lake Police Department and taught by Montclair, Calif.-based Alpha Group Center for Crime & Intelligence Analysis Training.
Topics covered include "three methods to forecast future criminal occurrences" and "two ways to link known offenders to unsolved crimes," according to the company's brochure.
"We lovingly refer to him as our department's Nostradamus," Perez said, referring to the 16th-century prophet.
A simplified version of the map Caulfield uses recently launched on the sheriff's Web site. Go to kanesheriff.com/CrimeAnalysts/CrimeAnalysts.htm and click on "your area reports." Then follow the links to the GIS mapping page.
The map is divided into townships and subdivided into one-square-mile areas. Users can see the total number of crimes reported within a square mile in the past year.
The statistics are broken down into five categories: burglary, residential burglary, burglary from motor vehicle, theft and crimes against persons, which include domestic battery, assault, rape and murder. Those crimes are highlighted because they're the ones of most interest to residents.
But unlike the map investigators use, the public map does not pinpoint where the crimes occurred. Such detailed information could tip off criminals, Caulfield said.
His analysis also can be used on traffic data. If crashes keep happening at a certain intersection and specific time of day, the sheriff's office will send a patrol car to the scene to figure out what's wrong. In some cases, the officers find drivers prone to speeding or blowing stop signs.
He's quick to point out that his data analysis is only part of the crime-solving puzzle.
"One way or another, through good old-fashioned police work or through (high-tech) mapping, we eventually catch the criminal," Caulfield said. "It's not like TV where (a crime is solved) in a half an hour."
High-tech police data analysis is a growing trend in law enforcement, especially in smaller departments like the sheriff's office, Perez said.
"Anything that makes you work smarter, not harder, is worth it," Perez said. "As with any field, if an agency can show consistent successes, other agencies are more apt to buy in and make it part of their operating procedures. And the powers that be are more apt to fund them."
Jim Caulfield
Occupation: crime analyst, Kane County sheriff's office
Hometown: born and raised on Chicago's South Side; now lives in Kendall County
Career: joined department in 1976 after serving in the Navy; worked on the department's bomb squad
Nickname: Sheriff Pat Perez calls Caulfield "Nostradamus" after the 16th-century prophet for his ability to use data to predict when and where crimes will happen