A closer look at 12 fantasy underachievers
Two years ago, I wrote a column centered around 12 underachieving players and called them The Dirty Dozen.
They were players we all expected to be high-flying fantasy point producers yet had disappointed us with their ghastly, putrid numbers.
I'm going to revisit that theme this week and try to peer into my crystal ball to see if they can become the heroes they were set out to be on draft day.
Ready, aim … fire!
• The first bullet is aimed north to Detroit where WR Roy Williams and QB Jon Kitna have made fantasy owners scratch their heads in wonderment. How are these two not putting up big-time numbers with Mike Martz as the offensive coordinator?
One reason is Kevin Jones' return has led to an improved running game that Martz is more willing to lean on. Still, we expect more of Williams than 47 yards per game the last five and more of Kitna than a three-game stretch that saw zero TDs and 2 interceptions before last week's mini-resurgence.
Prognosis: Stick with these guys. Kitna will be a solid performer down the stretch, and Williams' leaping ability in the red zone means you can expect at least 4 more TDs out of him before the season's over.
• Let's now head east to Carolina where The Greatest Fantasy Football Receiver in the History of Earth Resides. OK, that's going a bit overboard, but most draft boards had the Panthers' Steve Smith in the top three back in August. What has transpired since Week 3 just proves how much a top-notch receiver needs at least a semi-competent quarterback.
David Carr and Vinny Testaverde, who both have taken over for the injured Jake Delhomme, are basically incapable of throwing deep and thus taking advantage of Smith's sensational talent. Defenses have been able to take Smith (5 catches, 33 yards, zero TDs last two) out of games altogether.
Prognosis: Flat-lining. Smith owners have tough decisions to make in coming weeks and would probably be better off with receivers such as Denver's Brandon Marshall, New Orleans' David Patten, the Jets' Jerricho Cotchery, or Seattle's D.J. Hackett or Bobby Engram in their lineups. At the very least, make Smith show some signs of life before taking him off life support.
• Staying out east, let's pile on another receiver -- Washington's Santana Moss. Always a boom or bust player, Moss (24-297-0) is doing his best to lead the Bust of the Year candidates this season.
Prognosis: Bad. Like the Panthers' Smith, Moss has a quarterback in Jason Campbell who isn't taking advantage of Moss' talents. But another problem is that Joe Gibbs has always been a run-first coach, and with Clinton Portis as his top gun, Gibbs isn't about to abandon his philosophy.
• In Philadelphia, Donovan McNabb hasn't shown fantasy owners much brotherly love this season. Here we have the poster boy for the 1-TD, 250-yard game.
McNabb was a risky pick coming into the season, but we figured that was because he could go down at any time with an injury. As long as he's healthy, we expect big numbers. Instead, he's become incredibly boring from a fantasy standpoint.
Prognosis: He's a second QB. With a so-so receiving corps and defenses limiting what Brian Westbrook can do on screen and swing passes, McNabb isn't much more than a backup at this point. He's 19th among QBs in fantasy points since Week 4, so play him only if you must.
• Cincinnati has been a fantasy football Mecca the past few seasons, but the tidal wave of points has dried up. Rudi Johnson, a guaranteed 12-TD running back, and Chad Johnson, a no-doubt No. 1 receiver, have fallen off the map. Rudi has 196 rushing yards all season and had 9 carries for 11 yards last week! Chad has 67 yards per game since Week 3 and hasn't scored since Week 2.
Prognosis: With Rudi, leave him be until further notice. Chad hasn't been effective since his sideline spat with QB Carson Palmer earlier this season, but as long as he's healthy, he belongs in your lineup.
• There are few bigger disappointments than Colts WR Marvin Harrison. One TD catch? That's not what fantasy owners signed up for on draft day.
Prognosis: Very good. Harrison is expected back this week. If back to his old self, 6 more TDs isn't out of the question.
• A combination of injuries and the complete implosion of the Rams' offensive line have led to nearly worthless seasons from RB Steven Jackson and QB Marc Bulger. Jackson, however, is expected back this week.
"He feels a lot better," Rams coach Scott Linehan said. "Having some time to calm that (his groin and back) down a little bit was real good for him."
Prognosis: Good for Jackson, decent for Bulger. I can see Bulger putting up some nice numbers in the near future with the Saints, Falcons and Bengals on the schedule. But if you have Bulger and make the fantasy playoffs, Weeks 15 and 16 don't look so kind with the Packers and Steelers on tap.
• About seven years ago, I wrote a column saying Dorsey Levens was washed up and Ahman Green was about to take over in Green Bay. The situation in Seattle feels like deja vu, although I doubt Maurice Morris will become the back Green became.
This much does appear clear, though: Shaun Alexander is done. His rushing totals from the last four games: 25-35-47-32.
Prognosis: At the risk of repeating myself, put a fork in him.
• Niners RB Frank Gore was the fourth overall pick in many fantasy drafts. I was skeptical at the time, and it's proven to be a well-founded gut feeling. Gore hasn't scored since Week 2 and doesn't have a 100-yard game on the ground. What's sad is Gore's immense potential makes you want to start him, but his performance has made it tough to justify him as a starter.
Prognosis: Iffy. Hope for a rebound and 3-6 more TDs.
My teams: The regular league team (7-2) may have set a league record for points in a week. Every player and position scored a touchdown en route to a 189-66 thrashing. Last week's starters were: Matt Hasselbeck, Joseph Addai, Clinton Portis, Terrell Owens, Greg Jennings, Wes Welker, Jason Witten, Rob Bironas and the Seattle defense. The unit-league team (6-3) won 73-55 thanks to big games from Owens, Portis and Tony Romo.
Good bets
• Raiders RB Justin Fargas vs. the Bears. Oakland has made it clear that Fargas will be the No. 1 back until further notice. So for those who picked him up, enjoy what should be a nice day against a declining Bears defense.
• Packers QB Brett Favre vs. Minnesota. Against the leaky Vikings pass defense, Favre threw for 344 yards and 2 TDs in Week 4.
• Falcons WR Roddy White vs. Carolina. White hasn't been held under 55 yards since Week 1, and he had 127 yards and a TD vs. the Panthers in Week 3. He's a solid No. 3 WR.
• Giants QB Eli Manning vs. Dallas. The Cowboys are playing solid defense, but Manning threw 4 TD passes when the teams met in the opener. Expect at least 2 on Sunday.
Bad bets
• Chiefs RB Priest Holmes vs. Denver. With Larry Johnson out, Holmes will get his fair share of carries, but coach Herm Edwards said rookie Kolby Smith will also be in the mix. Use Holmes if you must, but I'm worried about how much this guy has left.
• Jaguars RBs Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor vs. Tennessee. In the season opener, both Jones-Drew (32 rushing yards, 28 receiving) and Taylor (16 rushing yards) were totally shut down by the Titans. Expect better numbers than those, but use them only if you must.
• Eagles WR Kevin Curtis vs. Washington. Curtis has had one good game since his Week 3 explosion against the Lions. Philly's passing game figures to struggle at Washington, so explore other options.
• Packers RB Ryan Grant vs. Minnesota. It appears Green Bay has found its running back in Grant (41 carries, 159 yards last two). He's still a fringe fantasy starter, though, especially this week against the Vikings. (He's also on the injury report with a concussion).
• Seahawks RBs Maurice Morris and/or Shaun Alexander. Morris will start if Alexander can't go due to his ever-growing list of injuries. Neither is a solid play, however, because Seattle's rushing attack looks disturbingly similar to the Bears: Ugly and ineffective.