Snakes offer Cubs a fair fight

As Alfonso Soriano blasted his 12th leadoff home run of 2007 on Sunday, you can be sure the Arizona Diamondbacks were paying attention.

It gave him 44 in his career and 7 just in September, when the scouts are out in force and watching very closely.

"There's a couple things you have to understand about postseason baseball,'' said Cubs broadcaster Bob Brenly, who managed the Diamondbacks to a World Series title in 2001. "One is that there are no secrets. If you have a weakness, teams know about it, and if there's something you like to do, teams know that, too.

"And it's not just one set of eyes, either. During the season, you might have one advance scout following a team, but in September you probably have three or four sets of eyes on one team and on each player, and they'll know exactly how to pitch to a guy.

"Teams are here for a reason, because they're good. It doesn't mean mistakes don't happen, because they do, but like I said, if a hitter has a weakness, every pitcher on that other team will know it.''

And one team Brenly knows well is the club from Phoenix, where he still lives in the off-season.

"Looking at the numbers, their lineup doesn't scare you, but they're a very good fundamental team and you can see that in their record in 1-run games (32-20) and extra innings (8-6),'' Brenly said, knowing the Cubs are 23-22 and 2-8 in the same categories. "Basically, they either get blown out or win by a run, and they're very good at home.''

The Snakes are 50-31 (.617) in Arizona, while the Cubs entered the second half a game under .500 at home and went 9-4 in September to finish 44-37 (.543) at Wrigley Field.

"Like most teams, it's really about their starting rotation and if they do what they're supposed to do, they're tough,'' Brenly said. "Brandon Webb's the ace, a perennial Cy Young candidate, and you have to make him get the ball up. If it's thighs down, forget it.

"There was a time when you could make him a little nervous, get him off his game, maybe make him balk, but that's not a weakness anymore.

"Doug Davis, the lefty, he throws as many balls as strikes, and if you get him in a hitter's count he's vulnerable. But he's crafty.

"Livan (Hernandez) is Livan. He invents pitches out there. He'll throw his fastball anywhere from 70-90, and his breaking stuff from 60-80, and he can make your hitters crazy.

"Micah Owings has more guts than stuff and he's not afraid even a little bit, plus he's a great hitter (.333, 4 homers, 15 RBI) and you have to worry about his bat, too.''

The starting rotations look fairly even, and Brenly rates the bullpens square, with Arizona closer Jose Valverde taking the ball last after Brandon Lyon, Brandon Medders, Dana Eveland, Bob Wickman and Tony Pena.

"Theirs is a lot like ours,'' Brenly said. "You don't want to trail late in the game.''

Arizona has the better defense and the Cubs the much more potent offense, but in center field Arizona has ex-White Sox prospect Chris Young, who's a very young version of Soriano.

"He can break open a game at any time, and you can say he's only 24 and this is a tough spot for him, but he's done it all year for them,'' Brenly said. "You have to keep the ball down against him, too. Way down.

"The guy you worry about is (left fielder) Eric Byrnes (hitting No. 3, with 21 homers, 50 stolen bases). He's what makes their lineup go. He's in the middle of everything, and he's a disruptive force.''

The D'backs are managed by Bob Melvin, Brenly's former bench coach in Arizona and his catching partner in San Francisco for three years in the '80s.

"Knowing Bob Melvin the way I do, he's going to be very aggressive, and while they're not what you'd call a prototypical running team, they'll run a lot if Jason Kendall is behind the plate,'' Brenly said. "That's not so much a knock on him as it is the Cubs' starters, who -- aside from Carlos Zambrano -- are not quick to the plate.''

The teams match up pretty well, so don't be shocked if this one goes the distance.

"I would anticipate a long series. The 1-2 starters are pretty even, so it's probably the No. 3-4 starters that make the big difference here,'' Brenly said. "A lot of the series seem to go five games in the first round these days. Wouldn't surprise me to see it happen again.''

brozner@dailyherald.com