Nextel Cup Chase driver profiles
Here is the field for the 2007 Chase for the NASCAR Nextel Cup listed in predicted order of finish.
1. Kurt Busch
Chase history: 1st in '04, 10th in '05
The skinny: Busch has been preaching consistency of late, and a new/old friend sure has helped him achieve that goal. Since Pat Tryson became Busch's crew chief at Sonoma in June, Busch has seven top 10 finishes and two wins in 11 races. Busch also has been qualifying well with Tryson and has eight top 15 starts in that span. The time each spent with Roush Racing must have contributed to getting this team up to speed so quickly.
2. Tony Stewart
Chase history: 6th in '04, 1st in '05
The skinny: No driver is better suited for the Chase than Stewart - 20 of his 32 career wins have come in the second half of the season. Stewart prefers driving loose cars, and the warmer temperatures in late summer help him in that area. Because Stewart missed out on the Chase last year, he raced for wins toward the end of this season and picked up three in the final seven races. Anything he learned then he will apply now.
3. Carl Edwards
Chase history: 3rd in '05
The skinny: For Edwards, the turning point in the season appears to have come at Darlington, when he qualified fourth and finished fifth at that demanding track. Edwards has had seven top five finishes in the past 16 races, including two wins at Bristol and Michigan. His reunion with crew chief Bob Osborne this season has been the key to his success. Among the Roush Fenway teams, Edwards' group seems to have the best handle on the Car of Tomorrow. He is strongest at intermediate tracks like the ones that fill the Chase.
4. Jeff Gordon
Chase history: 3rd in '04, 6th in '06
The skinny: Gordon has been so bad lately that it's time to remember just how good he was all season. Gordon had a series-high 21 top 10 finishes in 26 races this year. He could have taken two races off and still probably kept his lead heading into the Chase. Gordon isn't concerned about a recent three-race stretch in which he finished no better than 19th, but no Chase champion has ever fared that poorly in the races leading up to the final 10 events.
5. Jimmie Johnson
Chase history: 2nd in '04, 5th in '05, 1st in '06
The skinny: Johnson, the defending Cup series champion, has more Chase experience than anyone except Matt Kenseth, who is the only other driver in the field to appear in all four Chases. The race at California two weekends ago was vintage Johnson. You didn't hear much about him until daylight turned to dusk, but Johnson's crew chief, Chad Knaus, knew exactly what nighttime adjustments he needed to make to get Johnson into victory lane. Knaus' rapport with Johnson is unparalleled in the sport, and even Knaus' six-race suspension this season didn't change that.
6. Denny Hamlin
Chase history: 3rd in '06
The skinny: Since his wreck with Tony Stewart in the Pepsi 400 at Daytona, Hamlin doesn't look like the same driver. He has three top fives in the past six races, but he also has finished 17th or worse four times in the eight races since Daytona. Hamlin is best on flat tracks such as New Hampshire (where he collected his only win of the year), Martinsville and Phoenix, and his handle on the COT is among the strongest. But his intermediate and restrictor plate finishes aren't as strong as others'.
7. Jeff Burton
Chase history: 7th in '06
The skinny: Burton is a guy who keeps his car clean but rarely contends for wins. He won at Texas but has led only 28 laps all season, a low among Chase competitors. He had five top fives in the first seven races, but once he won at Texas, his season changed. In the 19 races since, he posted two top fives (six top 10s). Burton did lead last year's Chase through five races, but that won't happen again.
8. Matt Kenseth
Chase history: 8th in '04, 7th in '05, 2nd in '06
The skinny: Kenseth is the Chase's worst qualifier, but he's also the guy with the second-best average finish among the top 12 (Gordon is No. 1). That speaks to Kenseth's ability to get the most out of his car and to his crew's knack for continually giving him the track position to post those solid finishes. Kenseth's only victory this season was at California in February, and he has led only 35 laps since the Dover spring race.
9. Kyle Busch
Chase history: 10th in '06
The skinny: Busch continues to learn the art of controlled aggressiveness; he completed a career-best 97 percent of the laps this season. That's impressive, considering he's not on teammate Jeff Gordon's IM buddy list and has been a lame-duck driver since June. But credit the youngster and his team for having only one finish worse than 13th since the announcement that he wouldn't return to Hendrick Motorsports in 2008. He's a dark-horse pick if he makes good decisions on the track.
10. Martin Truex
Chase history: First appearance
The skinny: Anyone else amazed that the Junior in this Chase is Truex, not Earnhardt? Truex has earned his way in on the strength of seven top 10 finishes since June, including a win at Dover. July was rocky for Truex, but he straightened things out in time to lock up a spot in the Chase. Still, he has led just 17 laps since the Pepsi 400 in July.
11. Kevin Harvick
Chase history: 4th in '06
The skinny: Harvick finished 2006 strong and opened '07 with a thrilling Daytona 500 victory but hasn't taken the next step. In fact, he has regressed in the past month - his top 10 last week at Richmond was his first. Harvick can be counted on to contend at New Hampshire and Phoenix, but his intermediate track program has been a seasonlong problem.
12. Clint Bowyer
Chase history: First appearance
The skinny: Comparing Bowyer's year to Harvick's shows that whenever one Richard Childress Racing teammate struggles, the other often shines. What Bowyer hasn't done yet in his Nextel Cup career is win a race. He has led only 193 laps in 63 career races, and he can't be considered a major contender to win a championship until he is regularly vying for the lead.