Busch looks to seal Chase deal
FONTANA, Calif. -- Kurt Busch is doing his own version of scoreboard watching as NASCAR's "regular season" winds to a close.
"This is big picture time," Busch said. "I guess I've looked at just about every mathematical scenario. The bottom line is that if we are 165 (points) ahead of 13th place after Sunday night, then I think we are guaranteed a spot (in the Chase for the Nextel Cup championship)."
Busch, the 2004 Cup champion, goes into today's Sharp Aquos 500 at California Speedway holding down the 12th and final spot in the Chase, expanded this season from 10 to 12 drivers.
With only this event and Saturday night's race at Richmond before the start of the 10-race playoff, Busch -- NASCAR's hottest driver over the past two months -- isn't quite ready to breath easy yet.
But, with a 157-point edge over 13th-place Dale Earnhardt Jr. and 175 points over 14th-place Ryan Newman, his Penske Racing teammate, Busch would probably need a blowup of disastrous proportions to fall out of the Chase. More likely, he will continue to pressure the two drivers just ahead of him -- Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick, both within nine points.
"It really all has to do with your finish among the other cars that are around you," Busch said. "Yet, if you just go out there and worry about your own program and shoo for a top-10 finish, that means that there is only one race left for things to go back or go right."
Busch, who will start from the pole for the first time this season, can get a 5-point bonus for leading at least one lap by just staying out front for the first lap.
Earnhardt, starting seventh, was hoping to leave Dale Earnhardt Inc., the team his late father founded, with a championship as a parting gift. He will need a near-miracle to even get into the Chase, thanks mostly to four engine failures this season, including two in the last five races.
His only hope may be a combination of Busch having the same kind of problem Sunday, combined with a top-10 finish for Junior.
"If Kurt keeps up as he is, it will be hard for us to do anything about it," Earnhardt said. "If he has an unfortunate engine failure or something like that, maybe we can capitalize on that.
"It would make it exciting at Richmond."
It appears that would be the only thing that would make the 26th race of the season more than just an opportunity for someone to add one more 10-point bonus to the seeding for the Chase. Under this year's format, each win leading up to the Chase is worth an extra 10 points for the start of the playoff.
The way Busch has been running, it's not out of the question that he could wind up matching the four wins by both series points leader Jeff Gordon and reigning Cup champion Jimmie Johnson.
"We've just been checking them off as we have been going here with a nice steady pace for a while," Busch said. "We've had great cars that have allowed us to gain maximum points. All along, we just have the mentality of maintaining a solid finish."
Most of that mental focus has come since Pat Tryson, fired by Roush Fenway Racing in May, came aboard as his crew chief -- his third of the season -- in June. Busch, who was 16th, 144 points out of the Chase when Tryson joined his No. 2 Dodge team, quickly turned it around.
After a couple of weeks acclimating to each other, the team went on a tear. Busch has five of his eight top-10s and both of his 2007 wins in the last seven races.
"I'd have to say that the pit road decisions and the pit calls that he's made adjusting the car have been the difference," Busch said. "We had good cars before when we started the races, but we've just never finished well. We'd fail to adjust on it during the race. It just seems Pat is one step ahead."