Bulls eyes are on the prize, Wembanyama, but face long odds in draft lottery
Lottery drama could be short-lived for the Bulls on Tuesday.
They are the 11-seed in the NBA Draft Lottery, so if their logo is one of the first four to flash on the screen, then it's all over. Their first-round pick goes to Orlando to complete the Nikola Vucevic trade and the Bulls can move on with their offseason.
If the Bulls logo is not there, it's time to celebrate. That would mean the Bulls landed one of the top four picks and would get to keep it, since it is top-4 protected as part of the Orlando trade. If that does happen, the Magic would get the Bulls' top pick next year.
The Bulls' chances of landing the No. 1 pick is 1.8%, which can be done. They had a 1.7% chance 15 years ago, got incredibly lucky in the lottery and drafted Derrick Rose with the top pick.
Moving up from No. 11 has also been done. The Los Angeles Lakers had 11th-best odds in 2019 and ended up with the fourth pick. That pick eventually landed in Atlanta as part of the Anthony Davis trade and was used to select DeAndre Hunter.
One lottery oddity, the team with the seventh-best odds has moved into the top four five years in a row, including the Bulls in 2020 when they took Patrick Williams. Indiana is in the No. 7 slot this year.
There is an obvious top prize in this year's lottery. Seven-foot-4 France native Victor Wembanyama is almost certain to be the top overall pick. He could be described as maybe a taller version of Kevin Durant. Wembanyama is a fluid athlete who averaged 21.6 points and 10.5 rebounds for Metropolitans in the French League. He averaged five 3-point attempts per game, but connected on just 28.3 percent.
But this is considered a strong draft at the top. The next two picks are expected to be 6-2 point guard Scoot Henderson from G-League Ignite and 6-9 forward Brandon Miller from Alabama.
The next tier could include Houston power forward Jarace Walker, and a couple of guys who played in the Overtime Elite league, 6-7 forward Amen Thompson and 6-7 forward Ausar Thompson.
If the Bulls don't land in the top four, they most likely won't have a draft choice, since their second-round pick went to Washington in the Otto Porter Jr. trade in 2019. They picked up Denver's second-rounder in the Lauri Markkanen sign-and-trade, but that one was forfeited as punishment for tampering with Lonzo Ball in 2021.
The Bulls are owed a first-round pick from Portland from the Markkanen trade, but it's top-14 protected and the Blazers finished with the No. 5 lottery odds.
The lottery will once again be held in Chicago in conjunction with the draft combine, which began Monday at Wintrust Arena. Nothing has changed with the format - ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 are placed in a drum and drawn four at a time, with each combination preassigned to a team.
Rookie Dalen Terry will represent the Bulls on stage, with assistant general manager Pat Connelly in the drawing room.
A Bulls victory would complete a rare triple play for the city, since the Bears earned the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft before trading it, and the Blackhawks just won the NHL lottery.
Twitter: @McGrawDHSports
Percentage chance of landing NBA's No. 1 draft pick
1. Detroit 14.0
2. Houston 14.0
3. San Antonio 14.0
4. Charlotte 12.5
5. Portland 10.5
6. Orlando 9.0
7. Indiana 6.8
8. Washington 6.7
9. Utah 4.5
10. Dallas 3.0
11. Bulls 1.8
12. Oklahoma City 1.7
13. Toronto 1.0
14. New Orleans 0.5
NOTE - If Bulls do not move into the top four, their pick goes to Orlando to complete the Nikola Vucevic trade.