Bulls can't match Toronto's height, but lineup change is not the answer
The last time the Bulls saw Toronto, they were crushed on the offensive boards.
So it might make sense to use a taller lineup when the teams meet again Wednesday for a 10 vs. 9 game of the play-in tournament.
But that idea leads directly to one of the bigger mysteries of this Bulls team. Even though Patrick Williams has been a decent defender this year, the Bulls have played far better with Alex Caruso on the court.
So if coach Billy Donovan sticks with what's been working, that means the 6-5 Caruso will likely guard 6-8 Pascal Siakam, with 6-6 DeMar DeRozan probably on 6-8 Scottie Barnes.
Toronto's tall front line caused problems for the Bulls during the Feb. 28 meeting. Holding their own on the boards will be vital in this game.
"I think it's going to be offensive rebounding, transition, it's going to be the smaller things that put us over the top," Zach LaVine said. "You want to always go out there and prove the doubters wrong and play the best you can."
Here's how the lineup numbers play out. Since Patrick Beverley joined the Bulls at the all-star break, the new starting lineup of Beverley, Caruso, LaVine, DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic has a net rating of plus-14.7. That's the average number of points that lineup has outscored the opposition per 100 possessions.
Caruso has missed some games with a sore foot. The grouping of Beverley, LaVine, DeRozan, Vucevic and Williams is minus-31.6 in net rating.
Why is there such a big difference? Hard to say exactly, but it speaks to how good a defender Caruso has been. He guards his man, helps on others, jumps into passing lanes and is rarely caught out of position. His edge in experience over Williams helps too. It's like when Ayo Dosunmu started at point guard - he didn't play badly, but the Bulls were much better off with a more veteran point guard like Beverley or Lonzo Ball who can direct the offense.
Caruso was asked about the state of his sore left foot after the season-finale against Detroit.
"Not bad. It's been sore the whole second half of the year," he said. "It's kind of just what it is. It's basketball, it's the NBA, you play a lot of games, you get nicked up."
Another issue against the Raptors has been turnovers. The Bulls finished with 17, 22 and 20 in their three games against Toronto this season.
The first two meetings between these teams happened on consecutive days in November. LaVine didn't play in the first game, Siakam missed the second, so the Feb. 28 game feels like the only one with much of a guide to what could happen Wednesday.
The Raptors made a habit of double-teaming DeRozan, who spent his first nine years in the NBA playing for Toronto. He did not play well in the last meeting, finishing with 13 points, just 2 assists, 5 free throw attempts and 5 fouls. If the defense is geared to stop him, the Bulls want to see DeRozan creeping closer to 10 assists and still getting to the foul line.
Toronto guard Fred VanVleet scored a combined 57 points in the two November games, but just 3 on 1-of-11 shooting in the Feb. 28 matchup. Was that due to Beverley's defense or the fact that VanVleet missed the previous three games with an injury?
There's been a late-season change in the Toronto rotation: Feb. 28 was the debut of former Wizards forward Will Barton and he's basically taken the spot of former Bull Thad Young, who hasn't played since Mar. 10.
The Bulls had their chances to win both games in Toronto. Despite the rebound deficit, they led the Feb. 28 game at the 8:33 mark of the fourth quarter. The Raptors put together a quick 7-0 run - basket, turnover, 3-point play, Bulls miss, fast-break dunk.
It turned into a 12-2 run in about two and a half minutes. Once they fell behind by 9, the Bulls got as close as 3, but couldn't overcome that untimely run. That's exactly what the Bulls need to avoid to survive the play-in.
"It's the focus, it's the attention to detail," Caruso said. "The young guys got a little taste of it last year against Milwaukee, so it won't be a brand new experience for them. Just the mentality of win or go home, that's what you've got to have. Every possession's got to be the most important one. I'm confident in our guys. I think we'll be ready."
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