Arkush: Will Bears have enough healthy bodies to challenge Vikings?
It isn't what we hoped but there will still be much at stake when the Bears and Vikings meet Monday at Soldier Field.
The Vikings are locked in a five-way tie for the NFC's final playoff spot, with only Washington holding a tiebreaker over them.
With significant heat on “players' coaches,” Matt Nagy's and Mike Zimmer's troops are highly motivated to perform well for them — and in the case of the Bears, with significant change likely, including even the possibility of a complete rebuild where every guy on the field will know their jobs and NFL futures are at stake.
The Vikings are 6-point favorites and the over/under is 44.
Matchups to watch
This one will be all about the trenches
The Bears and Vikings have two of the NFL's better ground games and weaker run defenses, and these are the NFL's top two pass rushes.
Vikings first-round pick Christian Darrisaw has been bothered by a gimpy ankle; obviously, Robert Quinn is the Bear the Vikes need to handle, and Akiem Hicks should be back this week looking to make a statement.
Teven Jenkins is likely to get the start at left tackle and either Larry Borom — if he returns from the COVID-19 list — or Elijah Wilkinson are where the Vikings will focus their attention. But with edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen both out, the Vikings do most of their damage inside with Michael Pierce, Dalvin Tomlinson and Sheldon Richardson.
Coaching decision(s) to watch
Who will be making them?
Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, defensive coordinator Sean Desai and special teams coordinator Chris Tabor all on the COVID-19 list and “questionable to doubtful participants.” It seems certain if Desai can't go, so Mike Pettine will handle the defense, and assistant special teams coach Brian Ginn would step in for Tabor.
But if Lazor is unavailable, does Nagy let quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo, a former offensive coordinator at Cleveland, Minnesota and Jacksonville, step in to call plays, or is he unable to resist the temptation to take it back himself and try and manage the game with his coordinators absent?
Players to watch
Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, Eric Kendricks and Harrison Smith
Cousins is having arguably his best season as a pro with 27 TDs and just 5 picks, in large part because he's been sacked half as often as recent seasons and pro bowler Thielen and up-and-comer Jefferson are one of the best WR duos in the league.
Likewise, Cook is one of the NFL's best running backs, 2nd in total yards from scrimmage last year (1,918) behind only Derrick Henry and among league leaders again this year. But keep an eye on his badly banged up shoulder.
Kendricks is the Vikes' best defender, battling a balky lower back, and Smith is an All-Pro safety likely now on the backside of the hill but still very dangerous.
The X-Factors
COVID-19 and injuries
With as many as 13 players on the COVID-19 list this week, we have no idea what the Bears lineup will look like, and Cook, Kendricks, Thielen (ankle), Darrisaw, Roquan Smith (hamstring), Jimmy Graham (knee) and Hicks are all guys who could be anywhere from playing hurt to limited to out due to injuries.
Wild-card players who could surprise
Alexander Mattison, Tyler Conklin, Armon Watts and Xavier Woods
Mattison is one of the more dangerous number 2 backs in the league and Conklin has become a solid starter and producer at tight end for Minnesota.
Watts is a 3rd-year, former sixth round pick out of Arkansas who's emerged as an inside pass rush specialist with 5 sacks, tied for second on the team. Woods is both a weak link at safety who teams like to attack, but an occasional big play guy with 2 picks and 2 forced fumbles.
KEY STATS
Vikings: 2nd QB Sack Pctg., 2nd QB Sacks Allowed, 11th Pt.'s (26.5), 25th Pt.'s Allowed (25.6)
Bears: 1st QB Sack Pctg., 32nd QB Sacks Allowed, 27th Pt.'s (17.8), 24th Pt.'s Allowed (25.5)
THE FINAL WORD
Vikings 34, Bears 30
Bears have won 5 of last 6 vs. Vikings, including 33-27 exactly one year ago Monday night, and I liked them here ... until COVID broke out at Halas Hall. But with so many unknowns now, how do you pick a 4-9 club over one of the best offenses in the league locked in the thick of a playoff chase?
• Twitter: @Hub_Arkush