Gonzales: The Brewers have been dominating the Cubs for 3 years. Can the Cubs fix it?
Left-hander Cole Hamels questioned the legitimacy of the Cubs-Brewers rivalry less than three years ago after noticing that Cubs fans who filled the seats at then-Miller Park.
“I don't know if it's a rivalry yet,” said Hamels, knowing his comment would raise eyebrows around Milwaukee while contending the Cubs' road support bolstered his case.
But based on what's transpired since Hamels' comments, the Brewers have developed more into an annoyance that exposes what the Cubs have lacked — specifically a knack for winning key games and more recently with power pitching.
Hamels' comments occurred following a loss on Sept. 3, 2018 — a day after the Cubs held a five-game lead in the National League Central with 26 games remaining. Starting with that loss, the Cubs are 19-29 against the pesky Brewers.
The Cubs' current six-game deficit — their largest since the end of the 2019 season — appears ominous because of the Brewers' power arms of Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta that the Cubs' rotation has lacked.
And the Brewers completed a three-game sweep of the Cubs this week thanks to a bullpen that outperformed the Cubs' once-formidable cast of relievers.
The Cubs are 42-39 at the halfway point of a mercurial season. A more favorable July schedule, combined with the Brewers in the midst of 17 games without a day off, could help them trim their deficit.
“I think first place can go up and down a few times before September,” said Javier Baez, whose offense has mirrored the Cubs' fortunes with a .235 batting average in April, .281 in May and .157 in June.
“So I'm not worried about that.”
Recent history suggests otherwise, as the Brewers have found ways to advance at the expense of a Cubs team that has regressed steadily since winning the 2016 World Series (with the exception of a 2020 division title during a pandemic-shortened 60-game season).
Hamels' comments in 2018 occurred shortly after Kris Bryant made an ill-advised decision to throw to first base to try to complete a double play instead of throwing to home plate to nail the winning run. That resulted in a 4-3 loss, and the Brewers beat the Cubs five of seven times — capped by a National League Central tiebreaker win at Wrigley Field that earned them the NL Central title.
To blame Bryant entirely isn't fair, as he played with persistent pain in his left shoulder that limited his power. The Cubs' offense failed miserably, and the roster didn't possess enough quality reinforcements to occasionally spell starters that faded during a stretch of 30 consecutive scheduled games through the third week of September.
After the season, more trust was placed in the batters than fired hitting coach Chili Davis. But the struggles continued in 2019 despite a 3½-game lead with less than seven weeks left.
The Brewers struck again in the next month by winning five of seven that shoved the Cubs 4½ games out and eventually out of playoff contention after a four-year streak.
The anticipated returns of Anthony Rizzo and Bryant should fortify the Cubs' offense. But the biggest challenge remains whether Nico Hoerner and Matt Duffy can regain their unselfish hitting style that rubbed off on the rest of the offense once they return from their injuries.
An instant rebound is needed to retain the faith of a front office that is searching for much-needed pitching help with the July 30 trade deadline approaching and Bryant, Baez and Rizzo move closer to free agency.
Meanwhile, the Brewers' feeble offense gained more confidence, especially after scoring 15 unanswered runs Wednesday to erase a 7-0 first-inning deficit.
“We knew since the first inning that we were going to come back,” Willy Adames said after hitting a grand slam that highlighted an eight-run fourth inning. “I think everyone had that feeling.”
Manager Craig Counsell downplayed the significance of the Brewers' recent dominance that includes a 9-3 mark against the Cubs this season. But he did admit the six-game lead contains some perks.
“When you give yourself some space, you give yourself a little room for error,” Counsell said. “(That's) the best way to put it.”
Rivalry? July will decide whether the Cubs can correct their current shortcomings to challenge the Brewers when they meet again Aug. 9.
• Mark Gonzales is a veteran sports writer who covered the White Sox from 2005-2012 and the Cubs from 2013-2020 for the Tribune. Follow him on Twitter @MDGonzales