Is 2021 destined to be the end of an era for the Bears?
Let's forget for just a moment whether general manager Ryan Pace and head coach Matt Nagy have to win right now in order to save their jobs.
There is another even more compelling reason the Bears have to contend this year.
Whether they do or not there is a real chance due to age, free agency and the salary cap they may have to blow everything up and begin rebuilding in 2022.
Let's start here, the following players are all set to be free agents after the 2021 season: Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Marquise Goodwin, Damiere Byrd, Akiem Hicks, Bilal Nichols, Jimmy Graham, J.P. Holtz, James Daniels, Germain Ifedi, Alex Bars, Patrick O'Donnell, Desmond Trufant, Artie Burns, Tashaun Gipson, Deon Bush, DeAndre Houston-Carson, Christian Jones, Andy Dalton and Damien Williams.
If they get to free agency without restructured deals, Robinson, Hicks, Graham, Ifedi, O'Donnell, Trufant, Dalton and Williams will all be veteran free agents with median or higher price tags.
Losing A-Rob and any of the others (Miller, Goodwin, Byrd) would decimate the wide receiver position.
Hicks is one of the best interior D-lineman in the league, and Nichols was repeatedly flashing as a playmaker the second half of last season. Losing either would really hurt. Losing both would leave only Eddie Goldman as a difference maker, and we don't know yet what he will be after 20 months away from the game.
Graham and Holtz moving on would leave literally just Cole Kmet at tight end.
Trufant and Burns leaving would wipe out any veteran presence in the cornerback room, and Gipson's, Bush's and Houston-Carson's departure would demand an overhaul of the safety depth chart.
One of the greatest areas of hope for this season is the much-improved interior offensive line, but Daniels is the best of that group, and if Ifedi and Bars followed him out of town that'd be another major reconstruction.
Which leads us to the salary cap.
The Bears are at or slightly over the cap right now, about $190 million - the cap is $182.5 million but the Bears have a $7 million rollover from last year - but have not yet signed this year's draft class.
According to both Over The Cap and Spotrac, two of the best websites at tracking salary figures, only the Falcons and Saints are in anywhere near the cap bind the Bears are in.
It's hard to imagine early extensions for linebacker Roquan Smith, running back David Montgomery, Daniels or Nichols, although they could still create a nice chunk of cap space by doing a new deal with Robinson.
Of course any Robinson savings - if they can make it happen - would first go to creating room to sign the rookies.
And if you think the Bears cap problems are going away soon ...
The salary cap could go down again or stay flat next year as owners continue to recoup losses in their share of total football revenue from 2020.
But let's say the glass is half full and it somehow goes up 10% or so as it did almost every year in the prior collective bargaining agreement before the pandemic hit.
Let's put it in the ballpark of $203 million.
The Bears currently have 2022 commitments of $160.3 million, but it covers only 39 players under contract.
The 39 include just 11 starters along with running back Tarik Cohen and cornerback Kindle Vildor as crucial backups.
Signing 14 players, especially any that will slot into starting roles, will quickly gobble up the remaining $43 million in space and almost certainly leave little or no room for upgrades.
Equally concerning is the 11 starters under contract include Robert Quinn, who will be 32 in 2022, Danny Trevathan will turn 32 and Khalil Mack will be 31.
I would give pretty much anything to be 31 or 32 again, but in NFL years expecting them to be at their peaks is unrealistic.
Yes, we should be excited about the futures of Justin Fields, Montgomery, Kmet, Darnell Mooney, Daniels, Teven Jenkins, Nichols, Smith, Eddie Jackson and Jaylon Johnson, but is that the core of a Super Bowl team?
Certainly not yet.
No, I don't think this year's Bears are Super Bowl contenders but if absolutely everything goes right they could at least make a run.
They'd better because the winds of change are already gusting at their backs.
• Twitter: @Hub_Arkush