Massive roster changes to test Cubs' sustained run of success

The Cubs have been to the playoffs five times in the last six years.

The core from the 2016 World Series championship team is back for another season.

The Cubs won the NL Central last year and were in sole possession of first place from Game 4 until the end.

That's what you call consistent success, but most Cubs fans are not expecting the trend to continue this season after a winter of significant roster subtractions.

Four starting pitchers, headed by Yu Darvish, are gone. So is left fielder Kyle Schwarber, underrated backup catcher Victor Caritini and center fielder Albert Almora.

President of baseball operations Theo Epstein was the first to go — he tendered his resignation in mid-November. His successor, Jed Hoyer, still believes the Cubs are a team to be reckoned with after they made another quiet exit from the playoffs last season.

“I do feel like our offense, when you circle around the field, we have a lot of all-star caliber great players at different positions,” Hoyer said. “We just straight-out underperformed last year. There's no way around it. Do I believe that group is going to struggle in the same way? I don't.”

With pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training in Mesa, Ariz., on Wednesday, here are five things to watch:

1. More subtractions?

Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Anthony Rizzo are all eligible for free agency at the end of the season, and the Cubs have thus far been unable to work out contract extensions with any of the them.

That's sparked plenty of trade rumors, which Hoyer understands.

“I've had conversations with players and their agents,” Hoyer said. “I think the most important thing is being honest and telling them where things stand. We talk about this all the time, you can never have any untouchables in this game.

“You can kind of tell them the status of conversations and try to be transparent about that, but I think giving them complete assurances is probably impossible at any given time just given the fact a phone call can always come in.”

2. Rotation help wanted

The Cubs did counter the loss of Darvish, Jon Lester, Jose Quintana and Tyler Chatwood by acquiring Zach Davies from the Padres in the Darvish/Caritini deal, and they officially signed Trevor Williams.

On Friday night, Jake Arrieta reportedly agreed to return to the Cubs on a one-year, $6 million contract.

Ace Kyle Hendricks and Alec Mills are back, and Adbert Alzolay, Tyson Miller and Brailyn Marquez are also in the starting mix.

Hoyer expects the Cubs to expand the five-man rotation in order to get through a full season after COVID-19 cut last year's schedule to 60 games.

Non-roster invitee Shelby Miller figures to get a look in training camp, and Hoyer is likely to sign another potential starter or two in the coming days and weeks.

3. Pederson = Schwarber?

After non-tendering Schwarber, the Cubs signed free agent Joc Pederson in early February.

Like Schwarber, Pederson is a potent left-handed bat and a subpar defensive outfielder.

Hoyer sees some differences in the duo.

“I think the world of Kyle Schwarber so I don't want to sit here and say negative things,” Hoyer said. “But they're different hitters. I don't want to compare the two but some of the things Joc has really done well, he's cut down his strikeout rate over the last few years and he hits the high fastball really well. That's something we've struggled with as a team.

“Both guys are really good fits for Wrigley Field. Left-center field's really short and both guys have huge power the other way.”

4. Numbers game

Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, David Bote and Nico Hoerner all struggled with the bat last season, but the Cubs are willing to throw out the low numbers since play was limited to 60 games.

“You're talking about the first two months of the season,” Hoyer said. “I think in using Rizzo or Javy as an example, if those guys had put up those numbers in a typical season, on June 5 or so, I'd be super excited. Like, 'Oh great, we know they're going to have a huge next four months,' because players like that always get back to their numbers.

“We had a number of players that were so far below their career norms. That doesn't happen with players that are in their primes, especially not all-star caliber players. I don't put a lot of stock in it.”

5. Who's on second?

Jason Kipnis played the most second base for the Cubs last season, followed by Hoerner, Bote and Ildemaro Vargas.

Kipnis exited as a free agent, and Hoerner heads into spring training at the top of the depth chart.

“What you really want is for someone to grab the job,” Hoyer said. “I think we all want someone to grab hold of it and force their name in the lineup every day.”