Hub Arkush: Grading the Bears' draft picks

I really do love the annual NFL Draft, and if TV and radio ratings, web traffic, and social media views are any indication, tens of millions of people agree with me.

This year I began my sixth decade of covering it, and way back 40 and 50 years ago my Dad and I were instrumental in creating independent draft analysis that lead to all of you joining the party.

But enough — actually, too much — about me. Mostly I love it because for three days out of the year all 32 teams are equal, every one of them has a chance to build a Super Bowl team, and each has the ability to win or lose the weekend no matter how many others win or lose.

That is why so many of us in the business immediately start to give grades to all 32 teams to see who won, who got stuck in the middle and who lost.

But the one thing that drives me to distraction is that the overwhelming majority of the rest of you — most of you bright, kind lovely folks — annually refuse to accept what those grades represent, and far too many immediately begin trashing teams and many of the fine young men drafted before they ever even get to put on their new pads.

For the millionth time, please hear me: If you want to know who got the best players and which became better teams, you're going to have to wait at least two years and often three, when we'll have a real idea of how good these kids are as pro players.

All we can tell you today is which teams got the best college football players and more importantly, which teams created the most value or paid too much.

In 2017 Bengals, Broncos, Browns fans and analysts alike were gaga over John Ross, Garrett Bolles and Jabril Peppers.

Today ...?

On the other hand many experts felt Christian McCaffrey, Patrick Mahomes and T.J. Watt had all been over-drafted.

Today ...?

I expect you all get my point, but for how long will you remember it?

So how should we feel about the Bears' draft?

Please keep in mind these aren't my opinions. All of these evaluations are consensuses after talking to professional scouts, GMs and coaches representing almost every one of the 32 NFL teams.

I watch a ton of tape, I'd bet my life at least 15 or 20 times or more as much as anyone reading this column, but I still don't trust me.

This is from the guys who get paid to do it for a living and whose livelihoods depend on knowing what they're seeing.

Cole Kmet

The Bears had a huge need at the position regardless of how many bodies they already had on the roster because none of them was good enough. Kmet is the best tight end prospect in this draft and his ceiling is quite high, so he's a great get.

But it isn't a great year at the position, so even though he's the best, he was the 55th-rated player on our consensus board regardless of position, and they took him at 43, normally not great.

Because of his ceiling, maybe a B — becomes a B.

Jaylon Johnson

The Bears also had a real need at cornerback and Johnson is the third best college corner in this draft and the 24th best player overall, so getting him at 50 is an absolute steal, definitely an A.

Trevis Gipson, Kindle Vildor and Darnell Mooney

Day three gets trickier because once you're outside the top 100, players rankings become a lot more subjective.

But the Bears entered the day with their first pick at 163 and then nothing until well into the sixth and seventh rounds at 196, 200, 226 and 233.

That they converted that to these three picks at 155, 163 and 173 and all it cost them was 196, 200 and a fourth-rounder next year was very good value, according to the standardized draft pick trade value chart.

According to their scouting reports, Gipson definitely could have gone a full round higher, Mooney earlier in the fifth and Vildor fits here. Gipson has an extremely high ceiling while Mooney's 4.38 40-yard dash speed fills a desperate need that it looked like the Bears might not be able to fill prior to the trade. This round is a B.

Arlington Hambright and Lachavious Simmons

Hoping for anything special in the a seventh round is a fool's errand and these two as football players are both at least a notch below what you might even hope to get.

They do each get a point for joining Barkevious Mingo on the NFL's all-name team.

Both could prove to be wonderful surprises, but right now they feel like a typical case of Bears scouts thinking they see something that most others are missing.

They're a C- or a C at best.

So overall how do I grade the Chicago Bears 2020 NFL College Draft?

It really was every bit as much fun as I'd hoped it would be.

@Hub_Arkush