Road night games have been Cubs' kryptonite this season
Math is not the friend of the Chicago Cubs.
Time and circumstance may not be the friend of manager Joe Maddon.
Even if you're not a mathematics major, you can see the arithmetic on the wall is weighing heavily against the Cubs making the postseason, especially with them riding a six-game losing streak.
Already eliminated from a chance to win the National League Central, the Cubs (82-74) entered Monday's off-day 4 games behind the Washington Nationals and the Milwaukee Brewers in the wild-card race, with the New York Mets lurking one-half game behind the Cubs.
According to Baseball Prospectus: "This disastrous stretch has lowered the Cubs' prospect of a postseason appearance to under 6 percent. Moreover, in the last week, Chicago's playoff odds have fallen more than 55 percent. This wasn't necessarily a collapse, considering that the Cubs didn't have an iron-fisted grasp on a playoff spot beforehand, but that's semantics."
So the Cubs need to all but win out at Pittsburgh and St. Louis on their six-game season-ending road trip.
Whether the Cubs make the playoffs may not make any difference to Maddon's job status.
Maddon tried not to sound wistful as he met with reporters both before and after Sunday's 3-2 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals, the regular-season finale at Wrigley Field.
If there is anything working in Maddon's favor, it's that he has not "lost" the clubhouse. In fact, veteran Ben Zobrist did not want to comment on Maddon's "legacy" in Chicago, saying he'd like to see that legacy continue.
Maddon said he has been doing things the same way for more than three decades of managing, coaching and instructing.
"(Former big-league manager) Gene Mauch, when he told me that thing in 1984 about, 'You've created a great atmosphere,' it caused me to think, 'What have you done here?'" Maddon reflected. "And what you've done is you've built relationships, and you've created trust. And with that, you can be openly honest with somebody else without any kickbacks. Good or bad, I want to show up the same (way) on a daily basis. I think I've always done that.
"I think the players respect that. The players need that. They don't need to see hot and cold. They don't need to see a reaction to a bad moment, and all of a sudden this person is different."
Maddon seems to be as perplexed as anyone by the Cubs' road record of 31-44 and especially their mark of 20-36 in road night games.
"If you break the season down, that night game road thing has put us in this position," he said. "That's the part that's been most difficult to understand. And the 1-run losses (19-27 in 1-run games), how do you evaluate that? Is it not getting a hit or not making a pitch? But primarily for me, the biggest thing has been road-night. That's the thing about our season that's been really hard to put a finger on."
The road records are probably random. If you ran the season through a computer simulation, the overall record probably would be similar but the wide disparity between home and road records would not be as great.
The Cubs' offense has gone in fits and starts, with Maddon using 11 different leadoff hitters. That situation falls squarely on the shoulders of team president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer, who have failed to land a bona fide leadoff man since Dexter Fowler left for St. Louis after the world-championship season of 2016.
Epstein and Hoyer got lucky in '16 when Fowler unexpectedly showed up at spring training after an apparent deal with Baltimore fell through.
The bullpen has been much maligned this year even though there have been some good individual seasons. The Cubs have had a bona fide closer on their active roster for about 30 percent of the season, and that again goes back to Epstein and Hoyer, who did not have a proven replacement for the injured Brandon Morrow.
Craig Kimbrel signed in early June and was activated later in the month. He has been on the injured list twice. He is 0-4 with a 6.53 ERA and 3 blown saves in 16 chances.
But like most things in baseball, starting pitching tells much of the story with the Cubs. Yu Darvish's quality start Sunday was the team's 68th of the season. During the 2016 season, the Cubs had 100 quality starts.
When the Cubs have gotten a quality start this year, the team's record is 50-18, and the starters' ERA in those games is 1.57. When the Cubs don't get a quality start, the record is 32-56, and the ERA is 6.97. Starters Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Cole Hamels all spent time on the IL this year, and Hamels is questionable to finish the season because of shoulder fatigue. It's likely the Cubs will have to find a replacement for him next season as well as rebuild the bullpen and determine whether their young "core" hitters have peaked.
It's all made for a maddening season for Maddon, who despite it all, says he loves coming to the park and meeting with the media twice a day.
"Honestly, man, I've had a blast this year," he said. "I'm not just saying that. And I've had a great time since I've arrived. I like this stuff. I don't mind what we're doing right now (talking with the media). If I was here trying to contrive answers, then it would be more difficult. But I do believe what I've done in the past permits me to exchange like this. I know what I think. But I'm also open to what you guys say sometimes, and you guys make me think."