What we know - and don't know - about outstanding mail-in ballots
The gap is narrowing between the number of vote-by-mail ballots requested and those returned in the suburbs, though election authorities warn that unofficial results still could fluctuate before the Nov. 17 deadline.
The picture will likely become clearer in the next few days, as more ballots trickle in through the U.S. Postal Service and officials gain a better understanding of how many votes remain uncounted statewide, said Matt Dietrich, spokesman for the State Board of Elections.
As of Thursday morning, state data shows roughly 445,000 mail-in ballots that have not yet been returned in Illinois. But that number doesn't account for voters who requested to cast a ballot by mail and ultimately changed their minds, Dietrich said.
State election officials estimate roughly 50,000 people surrendered their mail-in ballots to an election judge before Tuesday, opting instead to vote at an early voting location, Dietrich said. That would bring the number of outstanding ballots below the 400,000 threshold.
Similar scenarios appeared to play out on Election Day, when local election authorities reported anecdotally that many voters were switching out mail-in ballots for in-person ballots, he said.
When the state expanded its vote-by-mail program amid the COVID-19 pandemic, a portion of the more than 2.3 million Illinois voters who applied - 1.2 million of whom were from suburban Cook and the collar counties - likely viewed their mail-in ballots as an insurance policy, he said. Should the coronavirus or any other factor throw a wrench in their plans to vote in person, at least they could still cast a ballot by mail.
DuPage County has received roughly 171,900 ballots via the mail or a secure drop box, compared to the 212,600 residents who applied, according to state data.
After removing those who opted to vote in person from the equation, DuPage election officials reported 23,052 potentially outstanding mail-in ballots, as well 2,547 provisional ballots, as of late Wednesday. Election judges intend to process and tabulate those counts as they roll in, Chief Deputy Clerk Adam Johnson said.
"We have a little more sense now of what the universe of potential votes is," he said. "That seems to be reassuring to candidates."
That level of detail likely will become more apparent across Illinois as each election authority begins reporting uncounted ballot data this week to the State Board of Elections.
As of Thursday, the state's preelection ballot counts showed 152,142 outstanding mail-in ballots in suburban Cook County, 8,372 in Kane, 57,790 in Lake, 15,340 in McHenry and 21,810 in Will.
It's uncertain how many of those ballots actually will be cast, or whether they have the potential to flip the outcome of any tight races. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and received within two weeks to be counted in final tallies, meaning unofficial results could change.
Dietrich said he believes the "vast majority" of remaining ballots will be delivered by the end of the week. But it'll be up to local election authorities to decide how and when they want to release updated results.
In Lake County, election night totals included Election Day and early votes, as well as most mail-in ballots submitted by Monday, according to Clerk Robin O'Connor. As more vote-by-mail ballots are delivered and processed, she said, the clerk's office plans to update unofficial tallies on its website only twice more: Nov. 10 and Nov. 17.
McHenry County will wait until Nov. 18 to update results all at once, Clerk Joe Tirio said.
Other agencies, including DuPage, have said they intend to post updates more frequently. In suburban Cook County, officials indicated unofficial election results would be updated at least daily.
Election authorities must be finished counting mail and provisional ballots by Nov. 17 and transmit results to the State Board of Elections by Nov. 24. The Elections Board then certifies the vote and publishes official results Dec. 4.