COD bracing for 8.5% drop in fall enrollment

The state's largest community college anticipates a significant enrollment drop because of uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic.

College of DuPage officials are predicting fall enrollment could decline by 8.5% compared to the fall 2019 semester, when 13,329 "full-time equivalent" students were enrolled at the Glen Ellyn-based school. The school defines a full-time equivalent as a student taking 15 credit hours.

Officials looked at enrollment as part of their ongoing work to prepare a proposed budget for fiscal 2021. Enrollment initially was expected to dip by 2.5%, but then roughly 1,500 students dropped out this term when COD moved to online instruction because of COVID-19.

"If we go into the fall and we're not at a 100% face-to-face (instruction), we will see a similar type of a scenario playing out," Jim Bente, vice president of planning and institutional effectiveness, said during a recent budget committee meeting.

The school announced this week it's developing plans to offer a combination of in-person and virtual learning this fall. Details will be released in coming weeks.

COD officials said offering only online classes would result in a larger enrollment drop than what's predicted.

Other area community colleges say it's too early to tell what impact the pandemic may have on enrollment.

Elgin Community College officials say they were predicting a 4.3% enrollment decline before the pandemic. A spokeswoman for Harper College said officials at the Palatine school are "planning for a variety of scenarios, but it's challenging given all the variables and unknowns."

Officials at McHenry County College say the Crystal Lake school's summer enrollment is up 5%. President Clint Gabbard said fall enrollment could increase because the school is a higher education solution for students who are economically affected by COVID-19 and for students "delaying their start at their four-year college destination for a semester/year."

COD officials say national data suggests as many as 25% percent of college students are going take a year off. Some students coming out of high school could take a gap year before starting college.

"They sort of felt burned out by what's happened," COD's Bente said. "They have to finish their senior high school year online."

While the economic downturn could force many Illinois students to attend in-state, Bente said he doesn't expect that to impact COD's fall enrollment.

"I look at that happening in the next couple years," he said. "The next year is going to be very, very difficult."

President Brian Caputo said officials reviewed three enrollment projections for the fall, including a best case and a worst case. The 8.5% drop is the middle-of-the road projection.

• Daily Herald staff writers Madhu Krishnamurthy and Chris Placek contributed to this report.