Ex-Illinois National Guard leader from Arlington Heights: We're on edge of a precipice with Iran
As tensions between the United States and Iran escalate, there's no play book for what's ahead, former Illinois National Guard Adjutant General David Harris said.
"We're on the edge of a precipice. We could keep ratcheting it up or hopefully step back and defuse the situation," said Harris, who served with the U.S. State Department as deputy director and chief of staff of the Iraq Reconstruction Management Office in 2005 and 2006.
The former state representative from Arlington Heights noted that when Iran dispatched missiles to two Iraqi military bases Tuesday, "they chose a very remote target."
"They had a whole bunch of other targets they could have hit which would have cost significant loss of life (to American troops), and they did not choose those targets," Harris said.
Iran's leaders had warned of retaliation after a Friday U.S. military drone strike that killed a top Iranian general. Harris said he wasn't surprised by Tuesday's attack.
"I don't want to minimize the loss of Iraqi lives and casualties," he said. "But if there were no Americans killed or injured, it affords the diplomats the opportunity to step in and say, 'Let's de-escalate.'"
President Donald Trump authorized the drone strike targeting Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in Iraq near the Baghdad airport. The president said the assault was necessary to prevent an imminent attack on American diplomats and military officials by Soleimani, a key intelligence and security leader in Iran.
The action resulted in angry protests in Iran.
Meanwhile, while acknowledging Soleimani's aggression toward America, Democrats in Congress accuse the White House of keeping them in the dark.
Harris said he had some worries as well.
"It was a very bold strike," the Republican said. "My initial reaction was one of concern based on what the Iranians might do."
"Do I feel safe in the United States? Yes, I feel safe in the U.S.," Harris said.
But "my feeling is that any U.S. asset especially in the Middle East is at risk. We have over 13,000 service members in Kuwait, 7,000 in Bahrain, 10,000 in Qatar, 5,000 in the United Arab Emirates. There are various bases spread out all over the Middle East."
Harris didn't meet Soleimani in person when he served in Iraq in 2005 and 2006 but characterized the general as belonging to the military's "bad guy list."
Some might draw a comparison between the slaying of Soleimani and Osama bin Laden in 2011, given both oversaw terrorist activities.
But "bin Laden was the sole actor; he was a nonstate actor," Harris said. "Soleimani is the second- or third-highest ranking official in the Iranian government. While perhaps they engaged in the same types of activities, there is a big difference between the two."
Harris was "not at all surprised" at Iraq parliament seeking to expel American troops and characterizing the strike as an attack on its sovereignty.
The U.S. has a Status of Forces Agreement with Iraq regarding deployment of troops. Under the agreement, "Iraq can say, 'Hey, it's time for you to leave ... we want you out,'" Harris said.
A driving force in the region is the age-old tension between Sunni and Shiite Muslims, Harris said, noting mainly Shiite Iran is a significant political influencer in Iraq. Sunnis are a minority in Iraq but held sway under dictator Saddam Hussein; now the country is shifting to a Shiite parliament as reflected by May elections.
"Over the years. the Iranian influence has increased in Iraq," Harris said.
So what happens next? "It's a time of real uncertainty," Harris said. "Iran may take an action we didn't anticipate they were going to take. Any action we take - I hope we bring our allies along with us."