District 204 could adjust boundaries, building use if enrollment declines

With enrollment expected to drop by as many as 1,400 students in five years, Indian Prairie Unit District 204 may have to do some things differently.

So officials next month plan to embark on a yearlong community engagement series to gather public input about topics including the budget, technology, educational priorities, boundaries and building use for the district of roughly 27,900 students from parts of Naperville, Aurora, Bolingbrook and Plainfield.

School board President Mike Raczak said the board is working with administrators to plan monthly discussions that will be open to the public.

The move comes after the board received a demographic study projecting 1 percent decreases in students each of the next five years, but reporting populations over capacity at Brookdale, Brooks and Peterson elementaries and Metea Valley High School.

How to handle crowded schools before declines in enrollment could relieve the space crunch will be a part of the community discussions, Raczak said.

"We want to involve the community to hear their perspective and viewpoint before we make decisions," he said. "Any decision with big implications is going to have community input."

The district does, however, plan to make some short-term changes before next year that could involve what Raczak called "small" adjustments to elementary attendance areas to relieve crowding. Superintendent Karen Sullivan said administrators will develop ideas for interim changes during the next few months to present to the board this fall or winter.

After the next school year is addressed, the district can delve further into the demographic study conducted by consultant RSP & Associates. The study said the district should expect 500 fewer elementary students, 500 fewer in middle school and 400 fewer in high school by the 2021-22 school year.

"That's a different way of planning than when you were growing," said Robert Schwartz, owner of RSP & Associates.

Economic factors in the housing market led more homeowners to stay put even after their children graduated, Schwartz said, and millennials who might have young children are not buying houses as quickly. That is contributing to smaller projected kindergarten classes, while larger classes of high school seniors graduate, he said.

"Housing hasn't recirculated. We didn't see as much of the turnover," Schwartz said. "You're seeing some of that played out here, where in the more expensive homes, there are fewer kids."

Schwartz's firm conducted the district's previous demographic study in 2012, which turned out 97.8 percent accurate, projecting the district would have 28,179 students during the 2016-17 year, when there were actually 27,565. The new study estimates the district will have roughly 26,500 students by 2021-22.

Results of the new study already have affected one decision.

School board members gave preliminary direction to tear down Indian Plains alternative high school before next school year instead of renovating it for continued use or turning it into an elementary school.

Although Brookdale and Brooks elementary schools on the district's north side are projected to have sustained enrollments higher than capacity, the report showed a total elementary capacity of 15,922 students - well above the projected elementary population of 10,869.

"The demographic study," school board member Laurie Donahue said, "showed us that we don't need more space."