Widescreen: Audiences clearly want to go to the movies. But do they want to go see 'Guardians 3'?
The summer movie season arrives today with the release of "Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3," and for the first time since 2019, Hollywood is no longer wondering whether people want to go to the movies.
"Top Gun: Maverick" and "Jurassic World: Dominion" both broke the billion-dollar barrier last summer at the global box office, and "Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness" and "Minions: The Rise of Gru" finished north of $900 million.
In the months after, "Avatar: The Way of Water" crossed $2 billion and "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" is still collecting 1UP mushrooms in theaters all over the world, scoring more than a billion points. Horror movies are still dependable moneymakers; "Scream VI" has racked up almost $170 million globally on a $33 million budget, according to Variety.
Audiences want to go to the movies. So now the question is: What do they want to see?
Marvel and Disney are really hoping the answer is more "Guardians," but the tepid reception from all corners for "Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania" and the diminished returns for "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" have industry-watchers wondering if superhero fatigue is finally here. A late change in marketing strategy for "Guardians 3" may reflect that anxiety; until last week, the ad campaign for the latest adventures of Star-Lord, Gamora, Drax, Groot and Rocket Raccoon strongly suggested that one of those core characters would die in the film. A more recent TV and web ad, however, goes so far as to promise a happy ending for fans of the snarky spacefarers.
The latest tracking data from deadline.com is estimating a $130 million opening weekend, an absurdly high figure that may, nonetheless, be perceived as a failure when stacked against the $146 million opening for "Guardians 2" in 2017.
Failure or not, there are plenty of Marvel movies already on the Disney release slate - 12, to be exact, going all the way to November 2026 and including two more "Avengers" movies, a "Fantastic Four" reboot," "Deadpool 3" with guest star Wolverine (Hugh Jackman), a "Blade" reboot with Mahershala Ali, and "The Marvels," starring Brie Larson and Iman Vellani, landing this year on Nov. 10 instead of its original July date.
If the superhero fatigue is here, it's gonna ruin a lot of Hollywood's future plans, provided the industry doesn't ruin them first by not paying the writers what they deserve.
You can plan your next few months of moviegoing with our full summer movie preview in Sunday's edition of Time out! I've already got June 30 ("Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny") and July 12 ("Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One") circled on my calendar.
• Sean Stangland is an assistant news editor who used boxofficemojo.com as his source for all box office figures in this story, unless otherwise specified.