Who will win? Film critic Dann Gire makes his Oscars picks, from sure bets to up-for-grabs

Predicting this year's Academy Awards winners might appear to be as easy as blasting womp rats on Tatooine with a T-16 Skyhopper.

So who will win big on Sunday night?

I have the answers here, and most fall in line with the prevailing common wisdom and bookies' best odds.

But I hear thunder on the right.

I see an unlikely but disturbingly possible Oscar ambush from “Top Gun: Maverick,” a slickly sheened propagandistic piece of populist military claptrap that wants us to believe that a Navy pilot can be rewarded, even lionized, for brazenly disobeying direct orders from commanding officers.

In this male action fantasy, a heroic hot dog, perpetually stuck in arrested adolescence as a Navy captain for 30 long years, remains incorrigibly uncommitted to both his career and considerably younger girlfriend (replacing his former, conveniently ignored love interest).

Nonetheless, star Tom Cruise has become the toast of Tinsel Town, heralded as the man who “saved Hollywood” because of the $1.4 billion that “Maverick” has captured. (Even though “Avatar: Way of Water” has earned a whopping $2.2 billion, James Cameron has not been credited with saving anything except a planet of blue humanoids using a white male surrogate.)

Will the popularity of “Top Gun” and Cruise's newfound savior status translate into surprise Oscar wins? Are Academy voters feeling compelled to reward this Maverick with an Oscar? Any Oscar? They have five categories to work with.

To quote Pete Mitchell, “Don't think!”

Just read on.

Sure bets

Animated Feature: Even if it hadn't already won the Producers Guild of America Award and the Annie Award, plus the Golden Globe, “Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio” would still deserve the Oscar for its use of astonishing stop-motion animation mixed with intricate rack-focusing and refreshingly adult treatment of its wooden boy, given to childish hissy fits against the backdrop of rising fascism in World War II-era Europe.

International Feature: Here's a big clue: Of the five nominees in this category, only one is also up for Best Picture - Germany's stunning cinematic remake of 1930's original genre-defining war drama “All Quiet on the Western Front.” Kinda gives it away, doesn't it?

Cinematography: The British Academy of Film and Television Arts Cinematography Award went to James Friend for his picture-postcard-perfect compositions and creative use of lighting in “All Quiet on the Western Front.” It doesn't hurt that Friend is British. Even so, no other 2022 motion picture equals the raw, immersive power of Friend's cameras.

Director: The “Everything Everywhere All at Once” duo of Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (aka “the Daniels”) became the third directing couple to win the Directors Guild of America Award for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Theatrical Feature Film (following Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins for “West Side Story” and Joel Coen and Ethan Coen for “No Country for Old Men”). Only eight DGA winners have failed to win the Oscar in the 75-year history of the DGA. There won't be a ninth this year.

Visual Effects: Cameron's CGI extravaganza “Avatar: The Way of Water” has this one locked up. I saw it in 3-D on an IMAX screen with vibrating seats. It's an enthralling work of pure, distilled, cinematic rapture, magnificent imagination and dedication to detail. A three-hour, 12-minute movie that feels like a mere three hours.

Most likely to win

Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan will win for his movie-stealing turn as Waymond Wang in “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Academy voters love comeback stories, and the former child star of “Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom” and “The Goonies” gives them a doozy. Plus, the Academy's increased sensitivity to diversifying the traditionally white-dominated Oscar winners may come into play here.

Editing: The recent American Cinema Editors' ACE Eddie Awards gave “Top Gun: Maverick” the win for best dramatic feature editing, but also gave “Everything Everywhere All at Once” the win for best edited comedic feature. Not very useful for predicting the Oscar winner. But “Everything” had to juggle a daunting number of multi-universes and keep them straight for audiences through precision editing. It will win over the single-universe “Maverick.”

Picture: Although the BAFTAs anointed “All Quiet on the Western Front” as Best Picture, Oscar voters will go with “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” with either “Elvis” or “The Banshees of Inisherin” as a potential, but unlikely, spoiler.

Documentary Feature: Daniel Roher's “Navalny” will win for its scary report on a man who, after months of recuperating from being poisoned with a lethal nerve agent in 2020, returns to his native country for some answers. The BAFTAs loved it over other Oscar nominees “All That Breathes,” “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” and “Fire of Love.”

Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett has been owed an Oscar for most of her long career. As the grieving Queen Ramonda in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” her impassioned speech about what she has sacrificed for her nation is the stuff made for awards. She will also become the first performer to win an Oscar for playing a Marvel movie character.

Original Screenplay: It could easily go to the brain-boggling “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” but Academy voters will want to reward “Banshees” with at least one Oscar, and Martin McDonagh's Samuel Beckett-like screenplay seems to be its best shot.

Adapted Screenplay: Rian Johnson's cleverly intricate “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” easily qualifies as the best in this category, but Sarah Polley's “Women Talking” - a timely drama about institutionalized sexual abuse in a Mennonite colony - will win, despite its unnecessary use of first-person narration, a jarring introduction of a weapon (handled better in the original novel) and a dramatically satisfying but credibility-straining finale.

Original Song: The catchy tune “Naatu Naatu” (accompanied by a spectacular dance sequence) will be the only Oscar to be won by the popular and critically acclaimed Indian historical epic “RRR.” And that's its only nomination. Original singers Rahul Sipligunj and Kaala Bhairava will perform the song live during Sunday's broadcast.

Original Score: Composer Justin Hurwitz will win for his brilliantly accomplished music in Damien Chazelle's controversial, critically skewered Hollywood epic “Babylon.” John Williams' score to Steven Spielberg's “The Fabelmans” offers soft competition.

Best Production Design: “Babylon” should win for its uncanny, authentically detailed re-creation of Hollywood at the dawn of the Talkies.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: “The Whale” for Brendan Fraser's prosthetic-enhanced physique, sweaty hair and facial makeup.

Best Costume Design: “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.” The original “Back Panther” won this Oscar in 2018.

Fights to the finish

Actor: This is the toughest race to call - a real cage fight between Austin Butler for “Elvis” and Brendan Fraser for “The Whale,” while Colin Farrell vainly attempts to enter the fray from “The Banshees of Inisherin.” Fraser will prevail. 1. He has a golden comeback story after years away from the cameras. 2. He has Critics Choice and SAG wins. 3. He IS the movie, an otherwise tepid, almost one-set-stage show put on film. 4. Oscar voters love actors who put on weight and de-beautify themselves for their art. But, Butler could pull it out. He has a Golden Globe win and delivers an electrifying rendition of the King.

Actress: Another brutal cage-fight, this one between Cate Blanchett's symphony conductor in “Tár” and Michelle Yeoh's laundromat owner in “Everything Everywhere.” Blanchett has Critics Choice and BAFTA wins. Yeoh has the valuable SAG Award. Blanchett already owns two Oscars, Yeoh none. Here, the Academy's increased sensitivity to diversifying traditionally white-dominated Oscar winners may come into play. Voters can give Blanchett a third trophy. (Boring!) Or they can make Yeoh the first Asian in Oscar history to win Best Actress. (Exciting!) Go with Yeoh.

Up for grabs

Animated Short: Excuse me, but “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” is virtually a slideshow with voice-over narration. Does it really count as animation? I'll bet on the adult-oriented “My Year of Dicks,” a biographic account of a teen girl's decision to lose her virginity.

Documentary Short: “The Elephant Whisperers” - about efforts to save lovable baby elephants in the jungles of South India - appears to be the current fave. But I'm going with “Stranger at the Gate,” the harrowing account of a U.S. Marine who plots a bomb attack on a new mosque in his hometown to save America. When he goes to investigate his target, an amazing thing occurs. It's called hope.

Live-Action Short: I'm going with Disney's “Le Pupille,” from writer/director Alice Rohrwacher, produced by Alfonso Cuarón. Although “The Red Suitcase” - about a frightened Iranian teenager arriving at Luxembourg Airport to wed a middle-aged man who virtually purchased her from her father - triumphs as a nifty work of tension and empathy.

Finally, the 'Top Gun' token Oscar

Sound: If “Top Gun” gets a nod Sunday night, it more than likely will be for its extraordinary sound design, right down to Tom Cruise's shortness of breath while climbing into the atmosphere at Mach Kajillion speed. Hey, they gotta give the Cruiser something for saving the industry. Otherwise, “Elvis” might steal it. (BTW: This combines the two former categories of Sound Mixing and Sound Editing.)

The 95th Academy Awards

Airs live at 7 p.m. Sunday, March 12, on ABC, ABC.com and the ABC app