Is 'The Dog' rolling over? Dann Gire says a major Oscar upset may be in the works

To accurately predict the winners of the 94th Academy Awards (to be announced starting at 7 p.m. Sunday, March 27, on ABC), one tricky question must be answered.

How much did the invasion of Ukraine by Russia influence Oscar voters during the six-day balloting period from March 17-22?

Did it nudge voters to embrace more positive, life-affirming movies such as “Belfast” and “CODA” over dark tales of murder, betrayal and cynicism such as “The Power of the Dog” and “Nightmare Alley”?

Did it provide a timely advantage for “Flee” and “The Long Goodbye,” two prescient nominees dealing with similar subjects happening now: military invasion, fleeing refugees and anti-immigrant discrimination?

These will be tough calls.

Ten years ago, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences membership numbered a mere 5,765 when a block of white, middle-aged males heavily dominated the voting.

Now, membership has swelled to almost 10,000 voters, the result of a committed effort to diversify the club's demographic mix, a welcome achievement that nonetheless adds more complexity to the art of Oscar prognostication.

Let's begin with the surefire, bet-the-farm, can't-lose categories.

For sures

Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose as Anita in Steven Spielberg's bold remake of the musical “West Side Story.” She has locked up wins at BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globe and SAG. Her chances to win might be further enhanced by her self-identification as a queer Afro-Latina, appealing to Oscar voters wanting to demonstrate support for diversity.

Best</pan class="x BTO fact box text bold"> Actor:</strong><![CDATA[ Will Smith as super dad, tennis coach Richard Williams in “King Richard.” Like DeBose, he has won BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globe and SAG awards and will take home the Oscar after two previous nominations for “Ali” (2001) and “The Pursuit of Happyness” (2006). His nearest competitor: Benedict Cumberbatch for “The Power of the Dog.”

Best Director: Jane Campion for “The Power of the Dog.” In addition to many critics' and professional awards, she nailed the coveted prize from the Directors Guild of America, a strong indication of Oscar success. (Steven Spielberg would be a huge upset here, because no director has won the Oscar without his film being in the running for screenplay and editing. His isn't.)

International Feature (formerly Foreign) Film: “Drive My Car” from Japan. Hey, it's not only up for Best Original Screenplay and Best Picture (BIG hints), but also it features huge chunks of Anton Chekhov's classic play “Uncle Vanya.” Exactly the sort of highbrow prestige material Oscar voters love.

Costume Design: “Cruella.” Did you know Cruella DeVil started out as a clothes designer? Her profession lends itself here to creating so many wild and elaborate costumes that the movie almost has an unfair advantage in this category.

Makeup and Hairstyling: “The Eyes of Tammy Faye.” No upsets here.

Best Bets

Animated Feature Film: Disney's sumptuously luminous musical “Encanto.” “The Mitchells vs. the Machines” has a long shot at a win, but if the Ukraine situation seriously weighs in on the consciences of voters, “Flee” could pull a BIG upset.

Adapted Screenplay: “CODA,” but “The Power of the Dog” could fetch it.

Best Actress: Jessica Chastain for “The Eyes of Tammy Faye.” She didn't merely imitate the overly dramatic, cartoony televangelist, she allowed us to sympathize with and understand a surprisingly pure soul.

Documentary Feature: “Summer of Soul” has this one in the bag ... but wait! Could “Flee” possibly upset its strong lead as a result of its prescient subject matter? (For those counting, “Flee” holds a record three Best Picture nominations: Animated Feature Film, International Feature Film and Documentary Feature.)

Documentary Short Subject: “Audible,” a superbly photographed and edited report on a winning team of high school football players - who are all deaf.

Animated Short Film: “Robin Robin” from the makers of the masterly crafted “Wallace and Gromit” stop-motion film series. A mouse family raises a robin from a hatched egg.

Live-Action Short Film: “The Long Goodbye,” a stinger of an anti-immigrant drama starring co-writer Riz Ahmed, a best actor nominee for last year's “Sound of Metal.”

Not-so-sures

Original Screenplay: “Licorice Pizza” or “Belfast”? Tough call. I'll go with “Pizza.” Norway's smart nominee “The Worst Person in the World” could be a complete upset, but a good one.

Original Score: “Dune.” Hans Zimmer's music is more complex and multilayered with vocals than Jonny Greenwood's quasi-horror film score for “The Power of the Dog.” But Greenwood is this close to a win.

Sound (formerly both Sound Editing and Sound Mixing): “Dune.” The raw sonic power and sheer density of the sounds in this science-fiction feature will be hard to beat, although “The Power of the Dog” and “No Time to Die” are within striking distance.

Cinematography: “Dune.” “The Power of the Dog” is nipping at its heels with a lyrical nod to the classic look of “Days of Heaven.”

Editing: I loved the daringness of “tick, tick…BOOM!” - my personal choice. But it will be “Dune,” with “The Power of the Dog” as a winner if “Dune” fails.

Song: Poor Diane Warren will lose her 13th Oscar nomination for “Somehow You Do” from “Four Good Days” when Billie Eilish's “No Time to Die” triumphs. If it doesn't, Lin-Manuel Miranda's “Dos Oruguitas” has it locked up.

Hair-pullers

Supporting Actor: If “The Power of the Dog” nominees Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit-McPhee split the votes, a third nominee might just grab the statuette. He would be Troy Kotsur, the deaf actor who plays the frisky father in “CODA.” He snatched the SAG award from expected winner Smit-McPhee, and will do it again at the Oscars. If not, Smit-McPhee wins it.

Visual Effects: “Dune.” “Spider-Man: No Way Home” will be waiting to swoop in if “Dune” fails.

Production Design: The toughest category because every nominee is spellbindingly excellent. I prefer “Nightmare Alley” or “The Tragedy of Macbeth.” But “Dune” will win.

Picture: Up until recently, “Dog” seemed to be an unstoppable steamroller to win most of its 12 nominations. Academy voters usually favor a Best Picture film that emanates prestige, importance, even nobility. The title “The Power of the Dog” comes from a Bible passage: Psalm 22:20 (“Deliver my soul from the sword; my darling from the power of the dog.”) A prestigious slam dunk, right?

Not so fast.

I sense a disturbance in the power of the force for “Dog.” The Male Actor in a Supporting Role at the SAG Awards, the one most everyone assumed “Dog” actor Kodi Smit-McPhee had locked up, went instead to “CODA” star Troy Kotsur. Last weekend, the Producers Guild of America - a reliable harbinger of the Best Picture Oscar winner - gave its Best Picture award to “CODA.”

“CODA,” about a hearing high school teen whose family members are deaf, may be formulaic, but it offers noble elements missing from its competitors during a time when bleak realities await outside our movie theaters: lessons in sacrifice, sincerity, faith, commitment, friendship and family. And it's funny.

“CODA” also won the Writers Guild of America award last weekend.

I predict an upset win for “CODA.”