Opinion: Does transit need to spend so much to survive?

Boy, those spending proposals for suburban transit agencies are eye-popping.

For Metra: Up 12.5% compared to a pared-back 2021 budget, and 2% higher than projected for the coming year in pre-pandemic forecasts.

For Pace: Up 13% from last year, 15% compared to the year before COVID-19 struck.

All when ridership and revenue from fares have tanked during an epic year of virus outbreaks, stay-at-home orders and remote work.

Metra ridership is expected to be 30% of the pre-pandemic level next year. Pace bus ridership is down by at least half.

It's pretty easy for us to get in a lather about such a big gap between use and cost. But, as with everything else since March 2020's seismic shift as COVID-19 descended, the issue has to be considered through a new lens, or several of them.

One given is that public transit has to survive, for reasons of equity, environment and the livability of our urban area.

Essential workers, women, people of color and people with lower incomes are more likely to rely on public transit. And while Metra is working to shift from diesel, train travel still is greener than if everyone drives instead.

Both Metra and Pace reason they must restore service even if passengers are slow to return, or risk a transit death spiral of reduced ridership leading to more service cuts, leading to escalating drops in passengers, funding and routes until the system collapses. Pace is bringing back its top routes, while Metra aims to return to pre-pandemic service.

"We feel the most responsible approach is to be cautious with our assumptions about the growth in ridership while at the same time ramping up our service," Metra Executive Director Jim Derwinski said.

It's a big gamble with a lot of federal money covering the spread. For Metra, the plan relies on $502.8 million in American Rescue Plan Act funding over the next few years. Pace, CTA and transit systems across the nation also are being propped up by the federal COVID relief aid.

We'd like to see spending at least curtailed to 2019 levels. Sure, a lot of things cost more now than they did then. On the other hand, sharply reduced ridership should account for some savings even with service restored.

In the "every setback is an opportunity" vein, we also hope to see some innovative ideas for the future of Chicago area transit, especially for suburb-to-suburb trips. The home in the suburbs, office in the city paradigm has been obsolete for years - and what if it's gone for good?

We're rooting for transit, but we sure want to see some payoff for the 2022 investment. If all goes well for the transit agencies, workplace-based employment gets a jump-start, a post-COVID renaissance sets in, transit passengers return and new commuting options emerge - before the windfall ends.