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The link between Midwest flooding and Atlantic hurricanes

Just last week, thunderstorms caused flash flooding across the Northwest suburbs. Ranging from 4 inches of rain in Elgin to 2.6 inches in Waukegan, this heavy-rain event flooded intersections, viaducts and basements. Flood warnings have been issued for sections of the Des Plaines and Fox Rivers.

Last month, we watched Hurricane Dorian pummel the Bahamas and the Eastern U.S. coastline. It devastated whole islands with its high winds, 20-foot storm surge and at least 36 inches of rain. The death toll and economic costs have yet to be tallied. Just two years ago, Hurricane Harvey dumped up to 56 inches of rain on Houston, killing more than 100 people and causing $125 billion in damage.

Heavy rainfall and hurricanes are familiar, if undesirable, events. Seemingly unrelated, both phenomena appear to be increasing in frequency and intensity. And there is plenty of data to back up this observation.

The Fourth National Climate Assessment (2018) indicates that heavy rainfall events are more frequent across the U.S. There are regional differences in the trends, but the Midwest has experienced the second-largest increase of all regions.

There's similar data for hurricanes, too. The 2014 National Climate Assessment observes that "the intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes have all increased since the early 1980s." And hurricane intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.

What's the connection between heavy rainfall in the Midwest and hurricanes in the Atlantic?

"We know that warmer air can hold more moisture, and moisture is a key ingredient to heavy rainfall, so it stands to reason that a warmer environment overall is capable of generating more extreme rainfall," stated Dr. David Novak of NOAA's Weather Prediction Center.

Our atmosphere is warmer because the greenhouse gases we've been pumping into the air act like a blanket around the earth, reflecting heat back rather than letting it escape. According to NOAA's State Climate Summary for Illinois, average annual temperature in the Midwest has increased by about 1 degree Fahrenheit since 1900.

In a paper with the catchy title of "Impacts of Potential Future Climate Change on the Expected Frequency of Extreme Rainfall Events in Cook, DuPage, Lake, and Will Counties in Northeastern Illinois," authors from the Prairie Research Institute at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign indicate that northeastern Illinois will experience more frequent and more intense rainfall events in the future.

Flooding disrupts our lives in ways small and large. From blocked streets to flooded homes and businesses, entire communities and regions grapple with lost productivity and unexpected economic costs.

This year's frequent and heavy June rains delayed or prevented planting some corn and soybean crops. As a result, the U.S. Department of Agriculture declared all 102 Illinois counties agricultural disaster areas. The Midwest economy is dominated by agriculture and accounts for 65% of the nation's corn and soybean production. Wetter weather will diminish agricultural yields and the ability of farmers to grow these crops profitably. Farmers will be affected first, but any increased costs will be passed on to consumers.

More frequent flooding events also impact municipal and regional infrastructure. The burden of dealing with these challenges and the associated costs often falls to local governments. They are charged with leading cleanup efforts and determining what measures to take to adapt to increased flooding events. Smaller communities may lack the resources to deal with significant rainfall events.

Flooding is a challenge that knows no boundaries. The lines that we draw to define municipalities, counties and states are artificial. To be most effective, adaptation measures must be coordinated. Elected officials at all levels should work together in a regional approach to maximize the benefits for all.

In addition, we should all urge our members of Congress to address the root cause of heavy rainfall events by supporting comprehensive national policies that rapidly reduce the pollution that is heating the air. Only a national bipartisan effort can adequately reduce greenhouse gas emissions and thereby constrain the impacts of our warming climate.

Sandy Kaptain and Deni Mathews are volunteers with Citizens' Climate Lobby. Mathews chairs the Fox Valley Chapter of CCL and lives in Bartlett. Kaptain is a member of the chapter and lives in Elgin.

Sandy Kaptain
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