Best way to win at gambling: Don't play

 
Posted8/19/2019 1:00 AM

The expansion of gambling is indication of a seriously troubled state. Gambling venues, and sellers of systems that allegedly improve odds of winning, use incomplete facts and misinformation, and they are predators upon the general public ignorance of probabilities. If the probability of getting a winning lottery ticket is 1:4, it does not mean that every fourth ticket printed is a winner. The tickets are printed and distributed randomly with winners produced at an average frequency of 1:4, sometimes less often, sometimes more.

The winning probability of 0.25 is an average. Actual probability for a ticket sold at a specific location and time may be lower or higher. The losing probability of 0.75 is important.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
 

The probability of buying four losing tickets is 0.75 x 0.75 x 0.75 x 0.75 = 0.316, or 31.6%, or close to 1:3. The probability of getting at least one winning ticket out of four is 1 -- 0.316 = 0.684, or 68.4%, or close to 2:3 and not 0.25 x 4 = 1 or 100%.

Eight tickets are needed for 90%, 16 for 99%, 24 for 99.9%, 32 for 99.99%, probability of getting at least one winning ticket.

No matter how many tickets that one buys, there is always one possible way to get only losing tickets. The probability of the next ticket winning is always 1:4.

This principle applies to all events of chance. Net, or real, winnings are gross winnings minus losses. Avoidance of losing is winning. Lottery and casino games are designed for players to lose money over time.

Winning by playing is extremely unlikely. The best way to win is to avoid lottery and casino games completely and to not buy any system.

Rich Lorimer

Streamwood

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