Manzo: The real story on who moves out of, into, and stays in Illinois

Reports of Illinois' population decline have been greatly exaggerated.

For years, the media and people in Springfield have used faulty "population estimates" to suggest Illinois was losing hundreds of thousands of residents due to out-migration.

Then, the actual census count happened. It showed a stable population from 2010 to 2020, with 12.8 million residents. A post-census review found Illinois' population was likely undercounted by 2%, meaning that we had around 13 million residents. The governor has requested an adjustment by the Census Bureau.

Nevertheless, claims of mass exodus have persisted - presenting a distorted picture of our state that relies on selectively omitting key pieces of data.

A new study by the Illinois Economic Policy Institute and the Project for Middle Class Renewal at the University of Illinois tells the full story. We analyzed a decade of tax statistics from the Illinois Department of Revenue and a decade of household survey data from the Current Population Survey to detail who moves out of Illinois, who moves in, and - equally important - who chooses to stay.

There is not a mass exodus from Illinois. Instead, the data reveals a broadening tax base and growing economy. Illinois added 200,000 taxpayers between 2010 and 2020, driven by gains in the Chicago area. There was an 80% growth in taxpayers earning more than $500,000 annually and a 52% increase in those reporting between $100,001 and $500,000. Meanwhile, those claiming Earned Income Credit government assistance fell by 11%.

Migration trends in the Current Population Survey corroborate these numbers.

Between 2013 and 2022, people who moved out of Illinois tended to be younger and have lower incomes than those who chose to stay. Only 30% of those who left became homeowners within their first year in their new states, and 14% reported relying on food stamp assistance - higher than either those who stayed or those who moved in.

The data also show that people who stay in Illinois have better socioeconomic outcomes than migrants. Stayers averaged 16% higher household incomes than leavers, were more likely to be married, and had homeownership rates of 70%.

And while Illinois lost residents to "net domestic migration," or those moving within the U.S., these losses were almost entirely offset by people coming here from abroad, including native-born military veterans, students, and expatriates, as well as foreign-born workers and asylum-seekers.

Put another way, using only net domestic migration numbers to suggest a hemorrhagic loss of population is like claiming you are eating less because you're no longer counting the food you consume on weekends.

But while Illinois' population has been stable, the state is changing. Compared with a decade ago, Illinois is more urban and suburban, more educated, and higher paid. As our economy has reached $1 trillion, more workers contribute to the tax base and fewer rely on government benefits.

Both the tax statistics and the household survey results tell this consistent story. And yet, it's essentially the opposite of what's written in the media and echoed in our politics.

That's the risk of being overconfident in unreliable census projections. It leads to false narratives and can lead to bad policy decisions.

Illinois can certainly do more to attract and retain people. If policymakers want to prevent out-migration, then they ought to know who is leaving, arriving, and staying in Illinois - and why. For example, investing in under-resourced communities could help retain the Black and rural residents who've been most likely to leave as economic forces have shifted. Making college more affordable could retain and attract the people who've been most likely to enter, while enacting pro-family policies like a Child Tax Credit could ensure that those who have been most likely to stay will continue to do so.

With a complete picture of Illinois' migration patterns, we can move on from exaggeration and talking points - and move forward with a policy framework that matches today's demographic and economic realities.

Frank Manzo IV is an economist at the nonpartisan Illinois Economic Policy Institute.