Pick your circus - Springfield or Washington

Springfield or Washington - which will be the best circus to watch?

All of us should remember this: we're paying for both circuses - and for all the clowns who will be trying to entertain us.

What happens in Washington next year should attract most of the attention. Already, with more than a month still to go before his inauguration, the new ringmaster has shown that there will be surprises - perhaps some of a breathtaking variety.

As an example, U.S. presidents whom I worked with didn't normally talk to leaders of Taiwan (and have it become public). Since the Nixon days, there has been a sensitivity to Beijing, and our old friend Taiwan has been left in the weeds (although most likely with assurance that Beijing won't dare threaten).

Trump can be excused in these early, pre-inauguration days of some gaffes - but this seemed to be more than a gaffe, rather another sign that things are going to be somewhat different in Washington and that maybe some of the old (and recent) agreements and handshakes are like library books - they have to be renewed periodically.

It is too early to measure the quality of Trump's cabinet choices. Some have had little or no experience in government, but that should not be viewed as a negative, as long as the individual has the intelligence to make decisions or recommend policies that are in the best interests of the United States. And that means the United States as a single entity, not a handful - or 50 - separate interests or states.

The new president must change - even slightly - his style. The bombastic behavior of the campaign won't work when he's dealing with foreign leaders - who are his equivalents, at least in status - and it won't work when he's dealing with lawmakers, Democrat and Republican, who know the ins and outs of how the U.S. government operates far better than he does or likely ever will.

The first three months of the Trump Administration should paint a pretty clear picture of what his presidency will be. It could suggest a major success, or a distressing failure.

In Springfield, meanwhile, the only reason to think that this session might be any different from last year - and the year before, and the year before that, and so on - is that Gov. Bruce Rauner may have developed a new strategy to combat - and maybe defeat - House Speaker Mike Madigan on some of the major issues.

That reason is that this begins the final two years of Rauner's four year term. The governor has tried to play nice during his first two years and he learned that the speaker has his own agenda and his own set of rules - and he has the numbers to win.

Rauner has not achieved the phenomenal business success he has enjoyed without learning how to win. It might take him a while - say two years - but the prediction from this corner is that Rauner and his allies will play a tougher game during the next two years, which officially begin next month.

Madigan and the Democrats have the numbers to win - but to win what? Continued tax increases? Even higher pensions for teachers and public employees? Crime in the streets, particularly in Speaker Madigan's hometown? Failing public schools?

Madigan and the Democrats have controlled the Illinois House of Representatives, which means control of the General Assembly, for 31 of the past 33 years. If Rauner is unable to convince Illinois voters that some drastic changes are needed, then he'll deserve to be a one-termer.

Trump probably likes Rauner. The two of them have made millions - make that billions - in business before entering the dirty and boring world of politics. And to make the kind of money both have made requires some real smarts - dollar smarts and street smarts - and having the knowledge to do this, when the other guy wants to do that.

It requires being willing to take risks that the other guy wouldn't, and winning.

Two years for Illinois, and four years for the USA. It is going to be fascinating.

Ed Murnane, edmurnane@gmail.com, of Arlington Heights, is a former staff member for presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush and former regional administrator for the Small Business Administration. In 2015, he retired as president of the Illinois Civil Justice League.