Quinn projects spending up for pensions, but little else

Gov. Pat Quinn Tuesday released a gloomy three-year budget projection Tuesday that shows stagnant spending or cutbacks in most state services with a notable exception: pensions.

The report shows revenues climbing for two years and then dropping sharply when the state income tax increase enacted a year ago expires. More federal money could make up the difference. The Democratic governor's forecast assumes state education spending will not grow at all, staying just below $9 billion through 2015. Services likely to be cut back include public safety and protection for the state's most vulnerable residents.

Quinn's projections suggest that if spending on schools and health care goes unchanged, other areas of state government would have to be cut 9 percent.

That would be a big concern for suburban human services providers, who are already dealing with the state's tardiness in paying what it owes them.

Kim Zoeller, president of the DuPage County-based Ray Graham Association, said a 9 percent cut could “devastate all of these community safety net services.” “There have been so many cuts, and failure to pay your bills on time,” she said. The association assists people who have developmental disabilities.

One area where spending is expected to increase is pensions. Projections show government pension costs rising about 43 percent over the next three years.

Quinn budget director David Vaught of Naperville says Quinn wants to see big pension changes that could bring costs down. Many lawmakers of both parties want the same thing, but they haven't found a proposal that can win approval in Springfield yet.

Vaught said the projections released Tuesday are a “starting point,” and the governor will release his detailed budget plans in late February.

The 9 percent cuts could change, he said, but with other costs going up, they might be tough to avoid.

“The math doesn't let you get out of that number very easily,” he said.

Even after Quinn announces his detailed budget plans, lawmakers are likely to want to change them significantly.

Still, Sen. Dan Kotowski, a Park Ridge Democrat and budget point person, said a three-year projection helps show what kind of money the state is going to have to work with in coming years.

“This is going to impose serious fiscal restraint in state spending,” Kotowski said.

ŸThe Associated Press contributed to this story.