Weber, Carmody feeling the heat?
College basketball coaches get paid extremely well for what they do. Common fans and influential boosters expect results commensurate with the paycheck.
Or, to put it in “Shawshank Redemption” terms, coaches need to get busy winnin’ or get busy leavin’ town.
On Friday night, I read a passionate yet normally levelheaded Northwestern blog (“Lake the Posts”) that suggested Bill Carmody deserves to be gone if the Wildcats don’t play the rest of the way like they did last week against No. 1 Ohio State.
You know, the game in which NU played undefeated OSU closer than any team this year despite being without leading scorer John Shurna.
On Saturday, after Northwestern edged Illinois 71-70 at Welsh-Ryan Arena, I received tweets and read message boards that suggested Bruce Weber shouldn’t have bothered to get on the bus back to Champaign (not that he was going to catch the bus anyway … I think he had recruiting to do Saturday night).
This is not a new situation for Weber, what legion of detractors grows each time Illinois squanders a close game. Illini fans probably are sick of the statistic by now, but their team is 1-7 this year in games that come down to the final minute.
Actually, to be more accurate, it’s fair to say a good chunk of Illini fans have been calling for Weber’s head since last year’s team failed to make the NCAA Tournament.
Once the emotion is wrung out of both schools’ situations, most NU fans and Illinois fans realize their coaches aren’t going anywhere after this season. Carmody just received a contract extension, while Weber just brought in one national top-10 recruiting class and welcomes a top-20 class next fall.
Trust the eyes or numbers?
While it’s more satisfying for fans to react emotionally, sometimes it’s important to step back and evaluate things logically. With that in mind, I’d like to present some dispassionate, contextualized numbers and elicit some thoughts.
A healthy chunk of NU fans believe Carmody, closing in on the end of his 11th season, has had more than enough time to fix Northwestern.
Here’s what I’d like to know from NU fans: What constitutes fixing the program?
If you look at Page 131 in Northwestern’s media guide, you get a taste of where the program has been. There’s a column that lists where the Wildcats finished in the Big Ten each year. There’s a stretch in there that’s mind-numbing and astonishing at the same time.
Starting with Rick Falk’s next-to-last season (1984-85), running through all of Bill Foster’s tenure and concluding with Ricky Byrdsong’s last season (1996-97), here’s where NU finished in the Big Ten. Remember that Penn State made it an 11-team league in 1992-93:
Ÿ10th place
Ÿ10th place
ŸTied for 9th
Ÿ10th
Ÿ10th
Ÿ10th
Ÿ10th
Ÿ10th
Ÿ10th (PSU’s first year)
ŸTied for 10th
Ÿ11th
Ÿ11th
Ÿ11th
So that’s ONE year out of the Big Ten’s basement in a 13-year stretch. That’s remarkable. It makes you wonder whether NU offered scholarships during that long run.
Kevin O’Neill lifted NU all the way to ninth and eighth place before finishing in the basement in his third and final year. Now, here’s Carmody’s run. He took over for O’Neill around Labor Day of the 2000-01 season:
Ÿ11th
Ÿ7th
Ÿ10th
ŸTied for 5th (highest finish since 1968-69)
Ÿ8th
ŸTied for 8th
ŸTied for 10th
Ÿ1th
Ÿ9th
ŸTied for 7th
While that’s a recipe for a firing at the average BCS conference school, NU has finished tied for seventh (or better) in just six of the last 41 seasons. Carmody directed three of those teams. He also has responsibility for three of the program’s 23 basement finishes in the last 41 seasons.
To cut a long ramble short, I have a few questions for NU fans based on these numbers:
ŸHas Carmody underachieved, overachieved or trotted in place at NU?
ŸWhat’s a fair expectation going forward?
Now, let’s get to Illinois.
I tried to sample some message-board thoughts after Saturday’s game, but it’s difficult to separate the anger from the logic when it comes to those who want Weber gone yesterday.
Of course, fans are entitled to rage in the wake of a disappointing defeat, but I’m searching for more than “He’s out of touch” and “a midmajor coach” and “bleep Bruce Weber.”
Here’s why: The stats don’t suggest the Illini are overwhelmed. If you look at the pure numbers — such as Pomeroy’s efficiency ratings and the team’s field-goal percentage and field-goal percentage defense — they suggest a team that ranks with the nation’s upper crust.
Example 1: Illinois enters this week’s games ranked second among Big Ten teams in field-goal percentage (.478) and first in field-goal percentage defense (.385) during league action. Their plus-.093 spread is way ahead of top-ranked Ohio State (plus-.043).
To lend further context, Illinois’ fabulous 2004-05 team enjoyed a plus-.048 spread in Big Ten games (.485 offense vs. .437 defense). The 2008-09 team had the best spread in the Weber era at plus-.066 (.461 vs. .395).
Since the game is about making shots and forcing the other team to miss, this year’s numbers suggest Illinois should be the best team in the Big Ten … or at least near the top instead of slogging along at 5-5.
Example 2: Entering Monday’s games, Illinois ranked 24th nationally in Pomeroy’s offensive efficiency and 25th in his defensive efficiency ratings. Here are the other teams that also ranked Top 25 in both categories:
Ohio State. Texas. Kansas. Duke. Kentucky. Purdue.
Those are good programs. All of them made the NCAA Tournament last year. All of them should make it this year.
In any case, it seems clear Illinois’ terrible record in close and late games (1-7) is the biggest factor that separates it from the others listed above. This year anyway.
To make this long ramble short, I have a few questions for Illini fans:
ŸWhat Weber-related reasons might explain why this team can be so efficient overall, yet so inefficient when it comes winning time?
ŸWhat’s the minimum this team needs to achieve this season to feel good about Weber next year and beyond?
ŸEditor’s note: Fans may post comments to this story online or visit Lindsey’s Joe College blog at dailyherald.com and join the conversation.