Dawson looks to be in good shape as he inches closer to immortality

When it comes to Cooperstown, the questions always outnumber the answers.

Sometimes it's obvious, like in the case of Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Roger Clemens.

The voters, myself included, have made their position clear on this by completely ignoring McGwire, and the Gang That Couldn't Play Straight simply isn't going to sniff the Hall of Fame.

Sometimes it would appear obvious, like in the case of Rickey Henderson, who was left off 28 ballots while getting elected Monday.

And in the case of Andre Dawson, who fell 44 votes short, 51 shy of Jim Rice, who made it in on his last try.

"I thought I might get a little bit closer this year,'' Dawson said. "I've always kind of moved the same as Rice, and he moved up a bit and I thought I might, too.''

Now the feeling here always has been that there's no right or wrong answer when it comes to a person's vote, even a vote for president.

Of course there was a time in this country when you could speak to fellow humans about your decision and were allowed to have an opinion without needing your 60-degree wedge for self-defense.

But these days most people you encounter act as though their opinion is the only one. Sad that it has come to that.

So while I voted for Henderson, 28 members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America didn't.

In his defense, Henderson was the best leadoff man in history and first all time in runs scored and stolen bases and second in walks.

And while he was doing that, he won two World Series, one MVP, a Gold Glove, played in 10 All-Star Games and tossed in more than 3,000 hits, which, in and of itself, used to mean an automatic vote.

But I don't begrudge those 28 their reasons. Instead we look to next year when there aren't any 90-percent types coming out.

Roberto Alomar would seem to be the front-runner, and he'll get my vote, but it's too early to suggest he's a lock. After that there aren't any big names.

What does that mean for Dawson?

As this year's highest-ranking holdover at 67 percent, Dawson should be in an excellent spot for next year, either getting in or getting very close.

Had he gotten the 4-percent bump Rice got, Dawson would really be sitting pretty at 71 percent, but Dawson's total stayed essentially the same.

"I feel like there's a good opportunity, so I'm optimistic,'' Dawson said Monday from his home in Florida. "I feel like it's going to happen eventually. You just don't want to get your hopes up too much in any given year.''

The good news is every single player in the last 25 years who has been the highest vote-getter without being elected eventually got in, usually the next year and only three through the Veterans Committee.

Furthermore, in the last 40 years, only four players received as much as Dawson's 67 percent of the vote and weren't elected shortly thereafter, and those four all made it in through the Veterans Committee.

Granted, the committee is different today, but those players who narrowly missed and needed help from the committee were all at the end of their 15 years of eligibility.

Dawson has seven years left on the ballot and should need no more than two chances to finally reach Cooperstown.

If Dawson falls short in 2010, Rafael Palmeiro is the only significant, first-time eligible in 2011, and he's got no chance for obvious reasons, so Dawson is in a great position for election in '10 or '11.

Ryne Sandberg made the jump from 61 percent in 2004 to 76 percent in '05 as the high-ranking holdover, and Wade Boggs was the only sure thing coming out, so Sandberg sneaked in by 6 votes.

The next two years are not as clear-cut, certainly nothing as obvious as Henderson at 95 percent, and Rice, who went from 72 to 76 percent in his last chance.

For Dawson, it should have happened a long time ago, but as the steroid era comes into focus, voters are taking another look at Dawson's superb career, the brilliance of his all-around game and the fact that his body never changed from college to retirement.

Hopefully, his long, painful wait is almost over.

But it is one person, one vote, and you never know what might come of a conversation.

You bring the Baseball Encyclopedia. I'll bring my lob wedge.

brozner@dailyherald.com