State can't rely on smokers to fund programs

SPRINGFIELD -- Both critics and supporters of a now 90-cent cigarette tax increase essentially agree that the state can't rely on a steady stream of money from raising cigarette taxes.

It can rely on more money. Indeed, the tax will produce millions more and potentially raise the state's total take from cigarette smokers to just shy of $1 billion a year.

The problem is that it's proven to be inconsistent. Smokers get fed up and quit. Some go out of state and buy cigarettes cheaper. And, given the associated health risks, it's no surprise that many smokers die each year.

There's a cycle that's developed with state cigarette tax policy. The state raises the tax, rakes in the added millions, watches it begin to drop off after a couple years and then pushes another tax increase.

This cycle has played out at least three times since the early 1990s.

The last state cigarette tax increase was 40 cents per pack, approved in 2002. It increased the state's tax take by 33 percent. But by 2005, cigarette tax revenue plunged 14 percent, followed by a 2.7 percent drop in the 2006 budget year.

The result? The latest push for a cigarette tax increase, this time on the heels of a statewide ban on smoking in public places such as restaurants and bars.

Critics said the volatility shows why the tax is a bad idea. Supporters said it's still better than raising other taxes.

The state's newfound interest in cigarette taxes underscores one of the biggest hurdles Republican-controlled DuPage County had faced in lobbying the Democratic-controlled General Assembly for a county cigarette tax to help bail out DuPage spending.

The political hurdle is this: if lawmakers are going to take the heat for a tax hike, they want to be the ones spending the money.

Initially, the DuPage provision was left out of the deal. But with several Democratic lawmakers expressing trepidation over the tax increase, DuPage was added Thursday in hopes of attracting Republican votes. Every DuPage lawmaker is a Republican.

It's one of many political ironies in the cigarette tax plan.

For years Senate President Emil Jones Jr., a Chicago Democrat, opposed cigarette tax increases, including a nearly identical increase Blagojevich pushed in 2005.

Now Jones is clearing the way for its approval.

A member of Jones' Senate leadership team explained Wednesday the change of heart, which occurred as lawmakers' overtime session set a record for futility. Lawmakers still can't agree on a state-spending plan nearly two months after one was due.

"It's July 25 and there's a lot of change of hearts around here," said state Sen. Terry Link, a Waukegan Democrat.

As for Blagojevich, he's previously experienced a turnaround on the topic of cigarette taxation.

Back in 2002, when the Chicago Democrat first got into the race for governor, Blagojevich proposed a 43-cent increase in the state cigarette tax to pay for a prescription assistance program and smoking prevention programs. But that year, lawmakers and then-Gov. George Ryan approved a cigarette tax increase to help bail out the state budget. As a result, Blagojevich's plan essentially vanished.

However, later that same year, Blagojevich's campaign waylaid Republican nominee Jim Ryan when Ryan suggested he'd consider raising sin taxes to balance the budget if elected.

"Name a kind of tax (increase). Rod is opposed to it," Blagojevich's campaign spokesman told the Daily Herald in October 2002