Sizing up the American League division series

Here's how Scot Gregor breaks down the AL playoffs:

How the Twins can win: Forget about the past against the powerhouse Yankees. These two teams have squared off three times in the ALDS since 2003, and it has been a lopsided matchup in favor of New York. The Yankees won all three series, sweeping Minnesota last year and winning 3-1 in '03 and '04. Twins ace Francisco Liriano was a nice story this season, winning AL Comeback Player of the Year honors after going 14-10 with a 3.62 ERA. But the left-hander, who starts Game 1, has to pick it up after losing his last 3 starts while allowing 12 earned runs in 13 innings.How the Yankees can win: CC Sabathia is a proven ace, and the big lefty is going in Game 1 and again in Game 4, if necessary. But Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes, both shaky in September, have to step up in Games 2 and 3. The Yankees have plenty of firepower with Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez and Robinson Cano, but they have to stay patient. N.Y. ranked first in the AL in on-base percentage (.350) and second in walk rate (10.4).The quote: #8220;The bottom line is that we're the world champs, and until somebody beats us, we're the world champs, Pettitte said. #8220;We're looking forward to try to defend this thing. It's going to be tough; nobody said it was going to be easy. You've got to embrace it.Gregor's pick: Yankees in fourHow the Rays can win: They edged out the Yankees to win the AL East, not that anybody noticed with all the empty seats at Tropicana Field this season. Another year of abysmal attendance has Tampa Bay worried about its future. The Rays are likely to lose free agents Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena and Rafael Soriano, so the pressure is on to win now.How the Rangers can win: They have to hit better in the clutch. Texas batted .276 as a team this season and scored 4.9 runs a game. The Rays batted .249 and scored 5 runs a game. Getting Josh Hamilton back also helps. Sidelined for much of September with a rib injury, Hamilton returned for the final weekend of the season and got back into the swing of things with a home run and 3 RBI vs. the Angels on Saturday.The quote: #8220;We know we have a good team, said Tampa Bay starter James Shields. #8220;We don't know what might happen next year, so we want to win while we can.Gregor's pick: Rays in four