For USA to have a chance, it all starts with Donovan
Someone is about to become a hero known in every corner of the world, a legend for the ages.
Someone else likely will become a goat in the minds of billions of people across the globe.
Careers will be put on fast forward, multimillion-dollar transfers generated.
And in the United States, the growth of soccer will be accelerated or stalled, depending on how a group of 23 men fare in a four-week tournament that starts Friday in South Africa and will be covered in United States like never before.
If you think this is going to be a bad World Cup for the United States, you've got good reason:
• Speedy forward Charlie Davies will miss the tournament because of injuries suffered in an auto accident in October.
• Forward Jozy Altidore has a sprained ankle.
• Central defenders Oguchi Onyewu and Jay DeMerit are on the roster but still trying to overcome some serious injuries of their own.
• Nobody has stepped forward to claim either of the starting spots at outside back. Carlos Bocanegra could get the left back job, but he's coming off hernia surgery and might be needed in the middle.
But if you're truly a pessimist, you're missing some very good reasons to be optimistic:
• The United States isn't playing in Europe, where for some strange reason it would probably struggle against a U-10 team.
• If the U.S. squad could make it to the Confederations Cup final last summer in South Africa, why can't it go far this summer in South Africa too?
• The U.S. got a favorable draw. After legitimate title contender England on Saturday (1 p.m., ABC) come relative softies Slovenia and Algeria. It's the best draw the U.S. has ever had.
• The American players are better than ever, with more of them playing in the world's top leagues than ever before.
So here's what the United States has to do to succeed again in South Africa:
• Landon Donovan has to step up and be as good as he has been this spring at Everton and then with the red-hot Los Angeles Galaxy. If Donovan has a bad tournament, the U.S. will have a bad tournament. If he sets the tone with hard work and big plays, the U.S. could repeat last summer's success.
• Goalkeeper Tim Howard has to be as spectacular as Brad Friedel was in 2002 when the United States reached the quarterfinals. Howard is more than capable.
• The United States has to avoid stupid red cards. It was a problem last summer. The easy solution is for the Yanks to stay on their feet a little more. This means you, Michael Bradley and Ricardo Clark.
• Coach Bob Bradley has to find the right person to partner with his son in central midfield. It could be either the defensive-minded Clark or Maurice Edu, or it could be the more possession-oriented Jose Torres.
• The U.S. does not have to defeat England in group play, though it is capable. It does have to beat either Algeria or Slovenia and get at least a tie against the other.
• Play with confidence. These players belong here. This team belongs here and proved last summer it is capable of having a long run.
If all that happens, the United States will defeat Germany in the Round of 16 before losing to Argentina in the quarterfinals.
Now, about the rest of the field...
Players worth turning on the TV for: Andres Iniesta and Xavi, Spain; Kaka, Brazil; Wayne Rooney, England; Lionel Messi, Argentina; Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal.
Group-play games worth turning on the TV for: South Africa vs. Mexico, Friday; Argentina vs. Nigeria, Saturday; Mexico vs. France, June 17; Netherlands vs. Cameroon, June 24; Portugal vs. Brazil, June 25.
Get well soon: Didier Drogba, Ivory Coast; Michael Ballack, Germany; Rio Ferdinand, England; Arjen Robben, Netherlands; Andrea Pirlo, Italy; Michael Essien, Ghana; David Beckham, England; John Obi Mikel, Nigeria.
Finally: Portugal 3, Spain 2, for the Cup on July 11. But before you bet your first born on this pick, you need to know I'm also picking Portugal and Ivory Coast to squeeze Brazil out of the tournament in group play.
The countdown is over. All 32 teams have a chance. The world is waiting.