Karzai's words are politics, not a threat

What's the matter with Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai? Just when Stanley A. McChrystal's counter-insurgency is about to kick into full gear - stamping out the Taliban while seeking to gain support from the locals - Karzai seems to have lost his resolve to work in partnership with the United States and allied forces.

Recently, an editorial in The New York Times accused Karzai of having "a long history of telling the international community what it wants to hear." A few days later, Karzai stated, "If you and the international community pressure me more, I swear that I am going to join the Taliban."

So what has changed? Perhaps it was President Obama playing the Dutch uncle at last month's one-on-one meeting between the two leaders that provoked the candor. Karzai, at long last, has told the international community something it doesn't want to hear.

Because we surely don't want to hear that the president of Afghanistan is ready to defect to the enemy.

Some pundits are asserting that Karzai is off his rocker. I disagree. Karzai is not unhinged, he's just theatrical. He wants to garner more attention from the United States and the international community. Trust me, neither Karzai nor any other leader who depends on U.S. forces to keep the peace will ever side with the Taliban. It would throw the country into even greater turmoil.

There's no way Karzai would join the Taliban. First of all, let's be honest: He wouldn't pass the physical. Though he's an old warrior, he is little more than skin and bones. Nevertheless, Karzai's warning - not a threat - has left the allies almost befuddled. As for Americans, Karzai incensed the majority.

I'm not among them.

Karzai is a lonely man. He is likely governing in the only way he knows how. But he is the best we've got. It's not altogether certain that, given the cast, Karzai is not, in fact, the best.

I've wondered why Karzai's outburst didn't happen sooner. I find myself admiring him for speaking out.

My primary concern is that the allied leaders will let their emotional reactions rule. Karzai is saying, "Too much pressure. Back off!" We would do well to look at his viewpoint. Karzai's back is up against the wall and he needs to rebuild trust with his people, especially given the tumultuous election process.

More troublesome is that Karzai's recent statements send a clear message that we're overlooking a fundamental dynamic in this war: Afghans - from Karzai to the Taliban - do not trust us.

To win this war and bring home our troops, we need to have the support of the government there in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan is a place where any rumor is enough to get you killed. Afghanistan politics move and breathe in an atmosphere where paranoid theories are treated as real. There's the rub.

Dr. Oscar W. Ritchie, a Kent State sociology professor, taught a useful maxim: In a nutshell: it doesn't matter if something is real or not - if it is perceived as real, then it is real in its consequences.

Today, there are two incorrect, and directly contradictory, perceptions of the United States among the people of Afghanistan. The first was summarized in a U.N. report released last week:

1) "Afghans perceive international actors as primarily interested in short-term objectives rather than challenging entrenched and abusive power structures."

and

2) At the same time, Americans are thought to be there for the long-term. We are accused of seeking to be a decades-long presence.

It doesn't matter if these perceptions are correct, the people of Afghanistan believe them and it shapes their actions.

We needn't worry about how Afghans can, at once, believe opposite and incompatible arguments. The tea party, here at home, does it quite well.

Karzai is faced with this reality: He must convince Afghans of the U.S. resolve to leave when al-Qaida and the Taliban are defeated, as well as to reassure Afghans that the United States won't leave them high and dry.

This is the root cause of the frustration that probably sparked Karzai's recent rant. We should thank him for placing it front and center. Nothing will go right until these false perceptions of America's motivation in the Middle East are dispelled.

Words mean nothing. Perhaps a series of confidence-building deeds will. If President Obama is looking for a "reset button" with Karzai, here's one: both share an admiration for Gandhi. They could talk about that. No pressure there. No starvation fasting required.

Karzai should watch his tongue a bit more closely if he wants to retain credibility with the American people. We don't like it when presidents joke about joining the Taliban. But I'm willing to let him off the hook just this once because he is in an impossible position.

Besides, I do not envy his job. I hope he's getting hazard pay. In the meantime, everyone should just calm down.

Donna Brazile is a political commentator on CNN, ABC and NPR; contributing columnist to Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill; and former campaign manager for Al Gore.

© 2010, United Feature Syndicate Inc.