U.S. ranked No. 1, but Germany is favorite for Women’s World Cup

Even with their No. 1 ranking and Olympic gold medal, the Americans aren’t the favorites for the upcoming Women’s World Cup.

That would be host Germany, winner of the last two World Cups and the team with the most talented roster from top to bottom — not to mention home-field advantage. Or Brazil, which has the best player in the world in Marta and was runner-up at the last three major tournaments. As for the once-mighty United States, well, this hasn’t exactly been its best year, forced into a playoff last November just to get to the World Cup and then losing to England for the first time in 23 years.

Yet the Americans sure didn’t sound like underdogs as they headed to Germany, where they begin their quest for their first World Cup title since 1999 on June 28 against North Korea. The Women’s World Cup runs June 26 to July 17 in nine cities across Germany.

“If we’re at our best, there’s not a team in the world that can beat us,” Abby Wambach said.

The U.S. was, without question, the world’s best back in the days of Mia Hamm, Julie Foudy, Joy Fawcett, Kristine Lilly and Brandi Chastain. The U.S. women won two of the first three World Cups, along with the first Olympic gold medal in 1996. But the success of that team inspired other countries to pour resources into their programs, and the gap between the Americans and everybody else has narrowed considerably.

Just look at the recent results. After going years without a single loss, the U.S. has had three since November. After sailing through regional qualifying, the Americans were stunned in the semifinals by Mexico, a team that had been 0-24-1 against the United States. The U.S. then had to beat Italy in a home-and-home playoff to earn a spot in the World Cup.

The Americans also lost to Sweden in the opener at the Four Nations tournament, which they went on to win, and were beaten by England for the first time since 1988.

“That’s a sign of how strong the sport has become,” captain Christie Rampone said. “International teams have more money invested and more of a commitment to women’s soccer. The speed of play, the technical side of the game, it all has improved and so has the competition level.

“There’s not a team out there you can overlook,” she added. “The game is more demanding. You have to make decisions quicker and read the game faster because of the speed everyone is playing at. If you are not locked in and focused, whoever you are playing, you almost have to be thinking three steps ahead when before you could get away with one or two.”

As the rest of the world was improving, the Americans were struggling to create their own identity in the post-Golden Generation era. Instability in the head coaching position didn’t help, either. Former U.S. player April Heinrichs was not a great tactical coach, and had a poor record of developing young talent. Greg Ryan’s decision to start Brianna Scurry over Hope Solo in the semifinals of the 2007 World Cup probably cost the U.S. a shot at the title and, worse, threatened to destroy the tight bond that’s been a trademark of U.S. teams.

Solo had posted three shutouts before being benched. Without her, the Americans were routed 4-0.

After Solo blasted the decision, Ryan dismissed her from the World Cup.

“I have no regrets. None. I don’t live with regrets,” Solo said. “You learn and you move on. I have.”

Ryan was soon fired and replaced by Pia Sundhage. With unflinching optimism and a calm temperament, the Swede was quickly able to repair the fractures in the team chemistry. Solo was welcomed back to the team, and was invaluable as the U.S. upset Brazil for the gold medal at the Beijing Olympics.

Equally important, Sundhage recognized that the U.S. had to become better tactically. She has put a premium on footwork and positioning, and the Americans are far more balanced under Sundhage.

She has also brought on younger players, taking care not to put too many demands on them right away. Alex Morgan, for example, has shown an impressive ability to create chances and score — she has seven goals in her first 16 games, including the game winner in the first playoff game against Italy. But Sundhage prefers to use Morgan, who turns 22 on July 2, as a late sub so she only has to worry about getting to the goal, not a game’s worth of strategy.

“I’ve been able to come off the bench and raise the energy level,” Morgan said, “add something different out there, maybe.”

While the U.S. has been able to create plenty of chances, it has struggled to finish them, particularly in recent games. Morgan’s goal against Italy came in added time, and Lauren Cheney also scored in stoppage time to lift the U.S. to a 1-0 victory over Mexico in a June 5 send-off match.

But Sundhage is not overly concerned about that. The team has addressed it, and will continue to do so. Besides, the U.S. had a similarly slow start in 2008, and that season ended pretty well.

“I’m looking at chances and counting chances. This is a good team, eventually we’ll score a goal,” Sundhage said. “It’s not only the final ball or when we touch the ball. It’s more about how we create, because that’s something we can control.”

The Americans drew perhaps the toughest group in Germany, playing World Cup newcomer Colombia (July 2, Sinsheim) and Sweden (July 6, Wolfsburg) in addition to North Korea. Sweden (fifth) and North Korea (eighth) are both ranked in the top 10; Germany is the only other seeded team with two top-10 opponents.

The U.S. beat North Korea 3-0 in group play in both 1999 and 2003, but the teams tied 2-2 in 2007. And North Korea has been improving rapidly, winning the Under-20 World Cup in 2006 and the Under-17 World Cup in 2008, and finishing second to the Americans at the 2008 U-20 World Cup. Sweden is Europe’s second-best team, though it has struggled so far this year with losses in five of its nine matches.

“The draw was a good thing for us, a tough draw,” Wambach said. “We’ve seen Sweden and North Korea before, we know what kind of challenge that will be, and that we’ll have to play our best to allow us to move forward in the tournament. I’ve talked with (teammates) about it, what everyone needs to do in order to win. You know, it comes down to playing well all the time and getting some lucky breaks. Really, luck plays so much into it. To win any championship in the world, you need some luck, too.

“What I do know is this team has the heart and the will and the desire to win.”

Though the U.S. could run into Brazil in the quarters if it struggles in the group stage, it cannot see Germany until the semifinals, at the earliest.

Brazil is unbeaten since April 2009 and has Marta, the five-time FIFA player of the year. But the Brazilians haven’t played much since regional qualifying, and finished last year with back-to-back ties against emerging Canada.

The Germans are trying to become the first team to win three straight World Cup titles. They’re undefeated so far this year, including a 3-0 victory over Norway on Thursday night, and have won seven straight. In fact, they’ve only lost three games since February 2009.

But those losses? All to the Americans.

“Everyone has the final game on our minds, and winning it,” Wambach said. “But we can’t skip any steps to get there. If you overlook any team, you can be beaten.”

Though the U.S. has won the last two Olympic gold medals, it has not won the World Cup since Hamm and Co. in 1999. That is a drought that needs to end, Solo said.

“Twelve years is a long time,” she said. “There may have been better U.S. teams to come through in the last few years and other countries have improved and it’s nice to see the money being put into the women’s game. But we also want to show we’re the best. We have the last two Olympic (gold) medals and we deserved those.

“We want the World Cup trophy.”