Biden being trumped in the polls and story telling

A sign in Bill Clinton's election headquarters back in 1992 reminded his campaign team that the key issue was "the economy, stupid."

The words captured a cliche -- that Americans vote their pocketbooks. If only it were still true, Joe Biden would win reelection in a romp.

This month, the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke through the 37,000 level for the first time. Inflation has plummeted from 9.1% in January 2022 to 3.1% last month. Consumer spending is strong. The economy grew at a sizzling 4.9% last quarter. Unemployment remains below 4% with over 14 million new jobs added since Biden took office.

And yet. And yet.

In a poll this month, registered voters believe by a 3-1 margin that the economy has gotten worse in the past two years. According to an October survey, 59% of Americans think we are in a recession. A survey from the previous month showed Americans prefer to have Republicans handling the economy by 14%, the largest margin in over three decades.

It's no surprise, then, that Biden is trailing Trump in the polls. "It's the economy, stupid" might have worked in 1992, but it ain't working in 2023. Why not?

Because the almost-certain Republican nominee Trump is telling a better story.

For those Democrats and disgruntled Republicans who look at Trump and see only bullying, greed and racism, they are missing the point. Trump has a story that resonates with tens of millions of voters. He says he wants to make America great again. He harks back to times when American factory workers were unchallenged by China and when women had no dominion over their own bodies. He feeds off resentment from those who think they are getting a raw deal, who believe government aid is going to the undeserving and who disdain spoiled graduates of Ivy League universities their children have no chance of attending. He tells voters they are getting overrun by immigrants: non-Hispanic whites were 89.5% of the population in 1950 but will be a minority by 2050.

So, what's Biden's story? Saying he is the greatest job-producing president in history just does not resonate. His attempt to take a page from Clinton's 1992 playbook does not work in 2023. Neither does a friendly Uncle Joe lost in the distant past. Nor does a role as comforter-in-chief.

So can Biden overcome what Yale professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld calls the "ageism and cynicism" of the American public?

Biden could learn something from the three presidents in the last hundred years who told Americans a story that was believable and inspiring. Franklin D. Roosevelt promised the government would offer a New Deal amid the Great Depression. John F. Kennedy stirred a new generation "tempered by war" to defend "freedom in its hour of maximum danger." Ronald Reagan told Americans they were building "a shining City on a Hill" according to "some divine plan ... to be sought out by those who were possessed of an abiding love of freedom and a special kind of courage." Americans bought into their stories of a New Deal, a defender of freedom and a country blessed by the Almighty.

Why? Because all three focused on the future while finding inspiration in the past. Each reached out to Americans, not as a spokesperson for any one group, but to all who believed in what's to come. Reagan captured this concept by saying, "as long as we remember our first principles and believe in ourselves, the future will always be ours ..."

Now, President Biden stands for a better future for Americans, one where good jobs are available, where laws are enforced without fear or favor, where personal freedoms are freely exercised, where there's compassion for those who suffer, where democracies stand together against aggression, and where educational opportunity is open to one's children and grandchildren. His problem? He holds the strands of a compelling story but has not woven them together into something believable. Even if he did, he couldn't tell it with the soaring rhetoric of a Roosevelt, Kennedy or Reagan. But he could weave it together and convey it with sincerity, earnestness and proof of a job well done.

He could add to his accomplishments with programs to make higher education more accessible, to support child. care and to enforce current immigration laws, while continuing to build infrastructure, restore manufacturing, defend democracy, protect individual freedoms and sponsor immigration reform.

Trump seems to look backward to the olden days. A winning story for Biden, even at age 81, would be forward-looking, providing a vision, telling us what tomorrow promises. However, if Biden cannot tell a better story than the one he is telling, he will lose.

As Bobby Kennedy said in his campaign for the presidency over a half century ago, "There is a contest on, not only for the rule of America, but for the heart of America." And the question for next November is whether it will be Trump or Biden's story that will win America's heart.

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