Arlington opens: 10 tips to handicapping the horses at the racetrack
Who do you like?
If you hang out at a racetrack for a day, chances are you'll be asked this question many times.
You picked a horse to root for, maybe even bet on, but how did you arrive at your decision?
Sure, you can play your favorite names, numbers or colors and get lucky, but what most people don't understand is there is a method to this madness.
The premise is simple: the first horse to the finish line wins. Predicting the outcome is what gets you paid.
With knowledge comes interest, so it's time to whet your appetite for handicapping a horse race, which I hope will lead to a future filled with winners.
10. Bet the hunch: Some people go to the racetrack for the atmosphere. They'd much rather enjoy their surroundings, have an adult beverage or two and socialize than get bogged down evaluating past performances. That's OK! Some of the biggest payoffs are won by people randomly betting on names, birthdays, lucky numbers and colors.
9. Physicality: Horses are animals, not machines. Signs of happiness include a shiny coat, good muscle tone and an alert, yet controlled demeanor. If a horse is sweaty and/or rambunctious, they're wasting energy and are unlikely to perform well.
8. Decipher the program: The information may look like a foreign language, but as an experienced fan educator it takes me 10 to 15 minutes to teach someone the past performances. Once you understand that information, you can begin to piece together the puzzle and formulate an opinion. A guide can be found in the program, but find a mentor to help accelerate your learning process.
7. Connections: One way to evaluate a horse is to identify the human connections. Top jockeys and trainers win roughly 15 percent to 20 percent of the time. But because they are higher-profile, bettors gravitate to them, thus decreasing potential payouts.
6. Class: Imagine if the fastest horses were allowed to race against the slowest ones. That would be no fun. To keep horse racing competitive, there are "class" levels. Understanding how a horse "fits" in a race helps toward determining their chance to be competitive.
5. Distance and surface: Sprinters like to race short distances. Routers prefer races around two turns where stamina is critical. Some horses gravitate to turf, others to dirt and others to synthetic racing surfaces. Based on past performances, ask yourself the question - is the horse I'm looking at running the right distance on their preferred surface?
4. Current form: When a thoroughbred is happy and healthy, they tend to race every three to four weeks. Has the horse you're evaluating been racing recently, and if so how has it performed? Horses running well are said to be in good "form." Those who are off their game are in poor form. Often a rest, a drop in class or a change in distance, surface or equipment can shake a horse out of a slump.
3. Speed figures: In the past performances, the bold number is the speed figure. It tells you how fast the horse ran that day - the higher the number the better. Look at their speed figures for today's surface at a comparable distance to get a feel for their ability.
2. Equipment: Horses using blinkers or adding Lasix for the first time often show marked improvement. Blinkers can help a horse focus. Lasix is a diuretic medication that helps a horse perform to their capabilities. Taking blinkers off a horse also can provide a spark.
1. Visualize: A phrase often heard from handicappers is "pace makes the race." If the pace is fast and contested early, the leaders are more likely to tire, giving a closing horse a better chance to win. If the early pace is moderate, the front-runners are more likely to have energy at the end, thus proving tough to catch. Identify the racing styles of each horse and visualize how it might play out.
• This column was republished with permission of Daily Herald handicapper Joe Kristufek, who also produces videos and writes about horse racing for americasbestracing.net.